Oscar Piastri’s System 1 world championship lead appears relatively much less unassailable after a borderline disastrous United States Grand Prix weekend. The McLaren driver not solely faces stern opposition from team-mate Lando Norris, however the unstoppable power of Max Verstappen with momentum.
Mexico Metropolis
Bumps, skinny air, and one lengthy straight outline this circuit. Regardless of that straight, and the shorter one between Turns 3 and 4, groups wind on the downforce as a result of Turns 7 by 11 require some threading of the needle and it’s very simple to get a wobble on by right here and lose pace. To an incredible extent, the thinner air at altitude negates the impact of larger wings, which is likely one of the causes Pink Bull has thrived right here over the previous few years.
The RB21 can be one of many few vehicles to take pleasure in good, steady downforce on the greater experience heights required to guard the planks from this monitor’s bumps. There are additionally not one of the actually quick corners the place McLaren’s MCL39 shines.
Ferrari carried out properly right here final season, however the SF-25 hasn’t all the time loved bumpy tracks for the reason that Scuderia chased decrease experience heights throughout its conception. The drivers are additionally managing one other concern, one which they’ve been cagey about discussing, and that mainly manifests itself at quicker circuits.
That is one other monitor the place Pirelli is introducing a step in tyre compounds, so the C1 replaces the C2 because the onerous, whereas the C3 and C4 stay the medium and tender. Whereas the goal is to nudge groups in the direction of two-stop methods, the improved thermal degradation traits of this 12 months’s tyres militates in opposition to the success of this tactic.
Max Verstappen, Pink Bull Racing RB20
Photograph by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Photographs
What occurred in Austin was that the onerous tyre was just too sluggish, and groups defaulted – for essentially the most half – to a one-stop medium-soft. Final season in Mexico, your entire prime 10 did medium-hard and pitted inside six laps of one another. If the onerous is 1.5s a lap slower once more, because it was final weekend, anticipate this to be a medium-soft pageant of tyre administration.
Races in Mexico Metropolis usually come down to not who’s quickest however who can preserve their head. Verstappen would have completed higher final 12 months had he not succumbed to a mood tantrum.
Brazil
Interlagos gives a tantalising mixture of challenges, with quick first and final sectors bookending a twistier center one. This have to arrange the vehicles with a compromise between the conflicting necessities is roughly analogous to Spa, although groups can get away with barely greater downforce settings provided that Interlagos is at altitude.
Final 12 months’s moist circumstances provided Pirelli a get-out-of-jail-free card on race day as a result of F1’s tyre provider had introduced compounds a step softer, however the C5 was so tender as to be unraceable. This 12 months, it will likely be C2-C3-C4 because it was two seasons in the past.
Lando Norris, McLaren MCL38, leads Charles Leclerc, Ferrari SF-24, and Max Verstappen, Pink Bull Racing RB20
Photograph by: Sam Bloxham / Motorsport Photographs
McLaren would usually anticipate to have the higher hand right here in a dry race, given the MCL39’s aero effectivity at higher-downforce tracks. The slowing downhill part from the exits of the Senna ‘S’ to the potential overtaking zone at Descida do Lago is sort of tailored for its automotive, as is the ultimate sector from Juncao onwards. However, once more, as McLaren workforce principal Andrea Stella has acknowledged, Pink Bull’s weak point at higher-downforce tracks is now not a given
Of the opposite front-midfielders, on paper Mercedes ought to have the higher hand on Ferrari given the SF-25’s allergic reactions to bumps.
Las Vegas
Whereas the desert-bound Disneyland for adults has little clearly in frequent with F1’s temple of pace, the abundance of straights make Las Vegas a low-downforce monitor, although the necessities usually are not so low as Monza. Colder climes additionally play a job, although the race is 2 hours earlier this 12 months, so it won’t be fairly so chilly.
This monitor didn’t go well with McLaren final 12 months and there’s no cause to suppose there shall be a drastic enchancment this time round. The MCL39’s benefit has been at its most marginal at low-downforce tracks and its different robust go well with, thermal administration of the tyres is unlikely to come back into play, although the ambients shall be much less frigid.
Final 12 months’s race was extra of a contest between Mercedes – whose vehicles have been quicker in colder climes for the previous few years – and Ferrari, which was on an upward efficiency trajectory. It’s turn into tough to foretell the place Mercedes shall be – half the time that appears to be a thriller to the workforce itself – however the easy monitor floor and proliferation of straights will play to Ferrari’s strengths.
George Russell, Mercedes F1 W15
Photograph by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Photographs
Verstappen was additionally a bit-part participant in final 12 months’s race, however the RB21 has been potent at lower-downforce tracks – extra so later within the season after aero improvement. Its new-found capacity to succeed in decrease experience heights make Verstappen a possible favorite right here.
Qatar
The Losail circuit was initially designed for bike racing so it’s a quick, flowing format with a reasonably excessive downforce requirement and only a few onerous stops. Warmth can be an element at this location, regardless of it being an evening race. Theoretically, that makes it a McLaren circuit, however the papaya posse underperformed within the grand prix final 12 months after ending one-two within the dash.
A lot of that was attributable to Norris and Piastri underperforming in qualifying, and Norris receiving a considerably contentious penalty for not slowing for yellow flags.
That is additionally a monitor the place Ferrari can enter the combination. It’s not particularly bumpy, and though the SF-25 has been problematic in high-speed corners, this has mainly been ones that require quick modifications of route, the place the rear finish can come unstuck. Right here, aside from a right-left-right between Turns 7 and 10, the corners have a linear radius.
Abu Dhabi
Apart from a fiddly part across the lodge and marina, this monitor is mainly dominated by straights with a handful of quick corners, so aero effectivity with downforce wound on confers a robust benefit. Up till lately, that may have made it a nailed-on McLaren circuit however, given current developments, it’s possible Verstappen shall be nearer. Final 12 months, he was three-tenths off pole place within the automotive that had taken him to the drivers’ championship per week earlier.
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Yas Marina is one other venue prone to deliver Ferrari into the combination, maybe not for total victory however as a doubtlessly disruptive power behind the battle for pole place. As we discovered in Austin, monitor place is now tough to overturn even on circuits the place overtaking is feasible. Yas Marina, regardless of the perfect efforts of the homeowners, is as conducive to passing as Monaco.
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