There is only one month of racing left within the common season for the NASCAR Cup Sequence, because the Chase for the Championship returns for the primary time since 2013. The revised format will take the highest 16 drivers within the standings and reset their factors after the twenty sixth race of the season.
The factors chief will start the ultimate ten-week stretch with 2100 factors, second could have 2075, third will start on 2065, adopted by five-point increments all the way down to Sixteenth on 2000.
Iowa Speedway, Richmond Raceway, New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and Daytona Worldwide Speedway are the 4 races that make up the ultimate stretch earlier than the playoffs. Earlier than the season resumes following its ultimate off-week, right here is the place the battle stands and what the contenders want over the following 4 races.
4 drivers already locked in: Whereas the period of win and also you’re in is over, there are 4 drivers who’ve mathematically clinched a spot within the 2026 Chase, even with 4 races left within the common season. Denny Hamlin, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney and Ty Gibbs have already secured their locations. A driver can rating a most of 76 factors in a single race, however that is provided that they sweep the phases, declare the checkered flag and safe the quickest lap bonus.
In a great place, however a tense battle for fifth: Carson Hocevar, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, and Christopher Bell — These six drivers ought to be feeling fairly good about their spot contained in the Chase, nonetheless, lower than 30 factors cowl them within the battle for fifth. The bottom on this battle is Bell in tenth, and he nonetheless has a 129-point buffer over the cut-line, whereas Hocevar in fifth is 158 factors up. With that being mentioned, their focus goes to be on the factors on the road come the Daytona reset. After that race, the motive force in fifth will reset to 2055 factors, 45 factors out of the championship lead. The driving force in tenth will reset to 2030, with every increased place price an extra 5 factors.
However now for the drivers we actually have to regulate within the coming weeks, as their Chase hopes stay up within the air, relying on what occurs over the following month of racing…
Good place — Suarez and Byron
Daniel Suarez, No. 7 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet
Picture by: David Jensen / Getty Pictures
Daniel Suarez, P11 +103pts: The 2026 Coke 600 winner has been hanging round between eighth and eleventh for the previous few months, and whereas his latest outcomes aren’t that exceptional, it ought to be sufficient to maintain him inside the highest 16. He has been holding regular at or round +100 in latest weeks, at one level slipping all the way down to +91 earlier than shortly bouncing again.
William Byron, P12 +88pts: The Hendrick Motorsports driver is having a surprisingly underwhelming yr and is up to now, winless. In fact, this No. 24 workforce is totally able to working robust sufficient to keep away from any cut-line drama, however Byron is definitely in a greater place now than he was a couple of weeks in the past. After Sonoma, he was solely +57pts, however has since padded that cushion even with some common finishes.
Close to the sting however with a cushion — Logano, Wallace, SVG
Shane van Gisbergen, Trackhouse Racing
Picture by: Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures
Joey Logano, P13, +65pts: The summer season run by Logano has been nothing wanting unbelievable. Simply 5 races in the past, he was 31 factors beneath the cut-line in twentieth place. At Atlanta, he made a giant leap and was knocking on the door of the Chase. He then secured a dominant win at North Wilkesboro and a podium end at Indianapolis, placing the Penske driver 65 factors above the cut-line and 7 positions increased than he was after Sonoma.
Bubba Wallace, P14 +60pts: Wallace has been very cold and warm in latest weeks, with finishes of twenty second, sixth, twenty ninth, sixth, and twenty eighth in the newest race at Indianapolis. Atlanta was particularly brutal, as Wallace crossed the road second, however a yellow line penalty on the final lap price him greater than 25 factors. Wallace has the pace, however he wants to attenuate the harm on dangerous days, as an alternative of strolling away with single-digit factors. If he can try this, then he has nothing to fret about.
Shane van Gisbergen, P15 +57pts: After a DNF at San Diego, some believed Van Gisbergen’s shot of constructing the Chase was slipping away regardless of profitable the next week at Sonoma, however the Kiwi has crushed these doubts by main the way in which for Trackhouse — on ovals. He completed sixth at Atlanta, almost received a stage after main 49 laps at North Wilkesboro, and secured a high 5 end there. Even at Indianapolis, the place the complete group struggled, he led the workforce once more with a Sixteenth-place end. That allowed him to edge additional away from the drop zone. With solely quick ovals and a superspeedway left within the common season — that are SVG’s strongest ovals — he has an actual shot of being the one Trackhouse driver within the postseason.
On the bubble and feeling the warmth — Cindric
Austin Cindric, Workforce Penske
Picture by: Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures
Austin Cindric, P16, +38pts: The Workforce Penske driver has principally been residing on the bubble this yr. Cindric has been sitting between 14th and seventeenth for a lot of the 2026 season, and he is been doing a superb job of simply extracting all he can out of each race. He has completed thirteenth or 14th in every of the final 5 races. These constant top-15 finishes have stored his pursuers at arm’s size. Trying forward, we all know Penske vehicles are among the greatest at working collectively and gathering stage factors at superspeedways, so Daytona serving because the common season finale actually works in his favor. Penske vehicles are additionally robust at quick ovals (which make up the following three races on the schedule), so if Cindric retains his nostril clear, it is going to be very robust for the drivers immediately behind to bridge the hole.
On the sting however with work to do — Preece, Jones, Keselowski
Ryan Preece towed from accident scene, No. 60 RFK Racing Ford
Picture by: Joseph Weiser of Icon Sportswire by way of Getty Pictures
Ryan Preece, P17 -38pts: Like Cindric, Preece has been residing on or across the bubble for a lot of the season. He’s additionally being haunted by a controversial penalty for intentional wrecking, which price him 25 driver factors after Texas. Nevertheless, that additionally means that he’s solely 13 factors exterior the minimize within the house owners’ standings, which complicates issues. Preece is among the extra constant drivers in NASCAR, however three consecutive DNFs earlier in the summertime price him dearly. However a string of high 15s to finish the common season will not be sufficient to beat one other driver like Cindric who can be superb at placing collectively first rate finishes. Preece goes to need to benefit from his quick monitor racing prowess over the following few weeks, and present the short-track type that made him a NASCAR Whelen Modified champion. Final yr, he earned a high 5 at Iowa and a pole at Richmond, so he’s actually succesful.
Erik Jones, P18 -44pts: The true shock of this bubble battle is the motive force of the Legacy Motor Membership No. 43. Jones has not been in competition for a Chase spot in years, and final made it into the highest 16 in 2019. However this yr, he and the complete LMC workforce have stepped it up. And whereas not a lot has modified within the Jones camp in latest weeks, he’s paying the worth for the surge in efficiency by drivers like Logano and Van Gisbergen. Instantly, Jones goes to have to seek out just a little bit extra to bridge the hole. The excellent news is that the Toyotas have been quick this yr, and if it comes all the way down to it, he may certainly depend on a pleasant push from one of many many Toyotas in protected Chase spots come Daytona.
Brad Keselowski, P19 -50pts: The 2012 Cup champion started the yr with a damaged leg, and it has been a so-so season for the RFK Racing co-owner. Sadly, he has been sliding backwards all summer season after spending the primary 15 races of the yr in a provisional Chase spot. He does have back-to-back top-10 finishes coming into Iowa, however these are additionally his solely high ten finishes over the previous three months. That will not be sufficient to make up 50 factors on the drivers forward.
Want a giant month and numerous assist — McDowell and Chastain
Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing
Picture by: James Gilbert / Getty Pictures
Michael McDowell, P20 -76pts: Two Spire drivers are feeling good about their Chase hopes, however essentially the most senior driver of the workforce shouldn’t be. McDowell is only a bit too far out to make up this hole on willpower alone. He’ll want a giant step up in efficiency, and a few misfortune for the drivers forward of him. A foul day from Cindric could possibly be a significant assist for each him and Chastain, as that will shortly erode 38 factors to the cut-line. However because it stands, the No. 71 workforce has not proven the tempo to make up such a margin in 4 quick weeks.
Ross Chastain, P21 -82pts: That is surprising. Chastain was thought of a near-lock for a Chase spot in the beginning of the yr, but it surely’s been a bitter yr for the motive force who led Trackhouse for the previous a number of seasons. Even on ovals, Van Gisbergen is outperforming him, and the workforce has additionally harm itself with a number of expensive errors. A Texas high ten slipped away due a late-race rushing penalty and a indifferent wheel denied them one other high ten at COTA. These two points alone price Chastain roughly 40 factors. Some of the promising races of the yr for the No. 1 was Nashville, but it surely ended prematurely by an exploding brake rotor. He’s additionally one other driver that has fallen additional behind in latest weeks as Logano and Van Gisbergen quickly rise, and it is possible sport over for this Trackhouse driver until one thing large modifications — instantly.
Past Chastain, the closest driver is Kaulig Racing’s A.J. Allmendinger, 109 factors behind. On this subsequent group, we have now a number of groups/drivers that simply aren’t able to making up such a margin in so few races. The drivers above seem like the one life like contenders for the remaining Chase locations, and we all know the battlefields — Iowa, Richmond, New Hampshire and Daytona. None of those drivers nonetheless combating to make the Chase are more likely to contend for the title, however merely making the minimize may do lots for a company.
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