There are 4 factors races left within the NASCAR Cup Sequence common season, with Sunday’s Iowa Corn 350 more likely to determine a number of spots within the 10-race chase. Because the factors battle begins to tighten and the cutline turns into extra of the main focus, we’re going to take a swing at predicting which 16 drivers make the 10-race chase.
Let’s dive into our NASCAR The Chase picks for the Cup Sequence.For the sake of brevity, we’ll initially make our picks by teams (clinched and digital locks) earlier than moving into particular person picks.
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Clinched
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Toyota has already locked up three of the 16 spots in The Chase because of dominant seasons from Denny Hamlin and Tyler Reddick, with Ty Gibbs additionally having fun with a breakout 12 months. There may be nonetheless loads of cause to care about what is occurring on the prime, since The Chase format provides a factors benefit to first place (2,100 factors), second place (2,075 factors), and third place (2,065 factors) over the remainder of the sphere. Given Hamlin leads Reddick by 84 factors, the regular-season champion appears clear. In the meantime, Reddick is 36 factors forward of Blaney in third, who is just 15 factors forward of Gibbs.
Associated: NASCAR Standings Coming into Iowa
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Digital Locks
NASCAR Cup Sequence driver Carson Hocevar (77) reacts after profitable the pole place Saturday, July 25, 2026, throughout qualifying for the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.Credit score: USA TODAY Community through Reuters Join
We aren’t going to see any NASCAR drivers clinch a spot in The Chase this weekend at Iowa Speedway, provided that the closest driver (Carson Hocevar) is 100 factors away. With that stated, there are a handful of Cup Sequence stars who’re at a couple of 99th percentile probability of constructing it in. Hocevar, Chase Elliott, Chase Briscoe, Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, and Christopher Bell have sufficiently big leads with resumes of robust finishes and common factors totals to think about these spots all however formally locked up.
Learn Extra: Kyle Larson Sheds Gentle on When He Might Retire from NASCAR
Joey Logano
NASCAR Cup Sequence driver Joey Logano (22) seems to be out over the monitor Saturday, July 25, 2026, throughout qualifying for the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.Credit score: USA TODAY Community through Reuters Join
Not solely is Joey Logano going to make The Chase, however the driver of the No. 22 automobile for Group Penske will enter it using a wave of momentum. Within the final three races, Logano has a mean ending place of 4.33 and he has accrued 150 factors in that span. With a number of short-track races coming as much as finish the common season, we expect Logano jumps William Byron to complete eleventh getting into the 10-race chase.
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Associated: NASCAR Predictions for Last 4 Common-Season Races
Daniel Suarez
NASCAR Cup Sequence driver Daniel Suarez (7) is interview on Saturday, July 25, 2026, throughout qualifying for the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.Credit score: USA TODAY Community through Reuters Join
Kudos to Daniel Suarez for profiting from a chance that doubtless dictated his future within the Cup Sequence. Even should you take away the Coca-Cola 600 win that was decided by the rain, he has nonetheless been very constant this 12 months and is placing up a fee of common ending place and top-10s that rivals what he did all the best way again in 2022 when he completed tenth in factors. Suarez is not a contender for the Cup Sequence championship, however he appears like a secure wager to complete eleventh or higher in factors when the 12 months ends.
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Associated: NASCAR Drivers Who Significantly Improved in 2026
William Byron
Necessary Credit score: Mike Dinovo-Imagn ImagesCredit: IMAGN IMAGES through Reuters Join
By the requirements of Hendrick Motorsports and the No. 24 crew, the 2026 season has been disappointing for William Byron. To place issues into perspective, Byron is nearer to sixteenth than he’s to seventh place in factors. Happily for Byron, robust finishes earlier within the season nonetheless put him effectively above The Chase cutline proper now. Byron and the No. 24 crew shouldn’t be sweating an excessive amount of with regards to making The Chase, however a championship seems to be like a heavy elevate this 12 months.
Shane van Gisbergen
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Whereas there aren’t any extra street programs on the NASCAR schedule, we view Shane van Gisbergen’s success on brief tracks as cause sufficient to imagine he can overtake Bubba Wallace. It is not going to make an excessive amount of of a distinction by way of The Chase, since they’d solely be separated by a number of factors, however SVG has gone from having a shot at making The Chase to feeling like a powerful wager.
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Bubba Wallace
NASCAR Cup Sequence driver Bubba Wallace (23) prepares to get in his automobile Saturday, July 25, 2026, throughout qualifying for the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.Credit score: USA TODAY Community through Reuters Join
If not for some very unhealthy luck paired with a number of errors by the No. 23 automobile and the crew, Bubba Wallace in all probability has a a lot bigger benefit over The Chase cutline. Sadly, he’s now inside that vary the place he can not afford to rack up any DNFs with out jeopardizing his possibilities of making it in. We’re predicting that Wallace will get one top-10 end within the last 4 races and the 23 crew performs it secure outdoors of that, simply guaranteeing he will get in.
Austin Cindric
Jul 4, 2026; Joliet, Illinois, USA; NASCAR Cup Sequence driver Austin Cindric (2) earlier than qualifying for the eero 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. Necessary Credit score: Mike Dinovo-Imagn ImagesCredit: IMAGN IMAGES through Reuters Join
That is actually persevering with the theme of going chalk with our NASCAR The Chase picks, however additionally it is taking part in it good. Austin Cindric has a 38-point lead over Ryan Preece and a 44-point edge over Erik Jones. Neither of these drivers has demonstrated the consistency, particularly as of late, to methodically chip away at that benefit. So, given Group Penske’s monitor file on brief tracks, now we have Cindric grabbing the sixteenth and last spot.
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