Yr 2 of the In-Season Problem kicks off Sunday when the celebrities of the NASCAR Cup Sequence head to the winding hills of Sonoma Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT Sports activities, truTV, HBO Max, PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).
Commencing this 12 months’s five-week, head-to-head bracket battle at a street course is a change from final 12 months, when the inaugural In-Season Problem kicked off on the EchoPark Speedway drafting monitor. A superspeedway-like race because the opener busted some early brackets with eight Spherical 1 upsets, however finally, Ty Gibbs emerged after a month of high-stakes battles to take the 2025 crown.
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A street course for this 12 months’s Spherical 1 race will definitely carry some completely different names into the fold, however will seemingly find yourself extra predictable than EchoPark. Right here’s what to control for this weekend in Wine Nation.
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ROUND 1 MATCHUPS:
(No. 1) Tyler Reddick vs. (No. 32) Alex Bowman
(No. 2) Denny Hamlin vs. (No. 31) Ty Dillon
(No. 3) Ryan Blaney vs. (No. 30) Josh Berry
(No. 4) Chase Elliott vs. (No. 29) Noah Gragson
(No. 5) Ty Gibbs vs. (No. 28) Austin Dillon
(No. 6) Kyle Larson vs. (No. 27) Riley Herbst
(No. 7) Chris Buescher vs. (No. 26) John Hunter Nemechek
(No. 8) Daniel Suárez vs. (No. 25) Todd Gilliland
(No. 9) Carson Hocevar vs. (No. 24) Zane Smith
(No. 10) Christopher Bell vs. (No. 23) Ross Chastain
(No. 11) William Byron vs. (No. 22) Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
(No. 12) Chase Briscoe vs. (No. 21) AJ Allmendinger
(No. 13) Bubba Wallace vs. (No. 20) Michael McDowell
(No. 14) Shane van Gisbergen vs. (No. 19) Ryan Preece
(No. 15) Erik Jones vs. (No. 18) Joey Logano
(No. 16) Austin Cindric vs. (No. 17) Brad Keselowski
TRACK BREAKDOWN
Shane van Gisbergen (who we’ll get to later) is an apparent favourite anytime the Cup Sequence goes street course racing, however a number of different drivers have stout Sonoma information. No. 9 seed Chase Elliott has by no means gained in Northern California, however has seven high 10s in 9 begins on the 1.99-mile street course. No. 7 seed Chris Buescher has high fives in three of the final 4 races on the 10-turn circuit, and each Elliott and Buescher have favorable matchups.
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No. 6 seed Kyle Larson is the one energetic driver with a number of Sonoma wins, together with his most up-to-date coming in 2024. He uncharacteristically completed thirty fifth there final 12 months, however confirmed his finest street course tempo in fairly a while final weekend in San Diego. His matchup with Riley Herbst can also be favorable, however the No. 35 23XI Racing workforce has made large positive factors over the past a number of months. No. 8 seed Daniel Suárez can also be a Sonoma winner and has crushed Todd Gilliland, his Spherical 1 opponent, in three of the final 4 journeys there.
No. 20 seed Michael McDowell owns one of the best common end within the Subsequent Gen automobile at Sonoma amongst drivers with a number of begins at 4.0. He’ll face Bubba Wallace, who completed second final weekend at Naval Base Coronado in his finest profession street course race. On paper, McDowell is a favourite as his 5.67 common end in three street course occasions this 12 months is tops in Cup, however Wallace absolutely gained’t go down simply.
MATCHUP OF THE WEEK: (No. 9) Carson Hocevar vs. (No. 24) Zane Smith
Two of NASCAR’s brightest younger stars are pitted in opposition to one another in Spherical 1. Each Hocevar and Smith are having fun with profession years of their third full-time Cup bouts, and each led laps and contended final weekend at Naval Base Coronado. Hocevar sits ninth in factors and has pace seemingly all over the place, and Smith has particularly damaged out over the past two months with three high 10s within the final 5 races. Smith crashed inside the highest 10 at each Michigan and Pocono, however this stretch proves that his Entrance Row Motorsports pace can deal with the extremely touted Spire Motorsports.
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Oh yeah, they’ve historical past, too. Final summer season at Iowa Speedway, , prompting Ryan Bergenty, Smith’s crew chief, to confront Hocevar post-race. In an interview with NASCAR.com every week later, Smith mentioned, “I personally can‘t go have a dialog with him with out getting a $75,000 wonderful … he‘s only a dumb [expletive].”
So two drivers that almost all positively don’t like one another racing straight up over 110 laps? That might create fireworks. Neither driver has completed higher than sixteenth at Sonoma, however with each on upward trajectories, it’s actually potential that each of those budding stars may discover themselves in competition for the win.
a cut up picture graphic of carson hocevar and zane smith
KEY MATCHUP: (No. 14) Shane van Gisbergen vs. (No. 19) Ryan Preece
After how Naval Base Coronado performed out, this matchup obtained much more attention-grabbing. On the finish of the day, van Gisbergen nonetheless has seven street course victories in 15 begins, together with six of the final eight. — and even Circuit of The Americas for that matter — confirmed that the No. 97 Trackhouse Racing driver isn’t invincible.
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Alternatively, Preece ran arguably his finest race of the season in Coronado, ending eleventh and incomes 19 of 20 potential stage factors. He’s completed no worse than 18th in three street course races in 2026 and at last has some momentum on his facet after a depressing four-week stretch between Charlotte and Pocono. Preece is usually recognized for ending constantly and maximizing his automobile, so if SVG has one other misstep, the RFK Racing driver can pounce and bust brackets. (And sure, Preece is having loads of enjoyable about .)
KEY MATCHUP: (No. 16) Austin Cindric vs. (No. 17) Brad Keselowski
The latest drivers of Workforce Penske’s famed No. 2 automobile will face off in a matchup that might go both manner. Neither driver has fared notably nicely at Sonoma, with Cindric incomes one high 5 in 4 begins and Keselowski only one high 5 in 15 begins. Cindric, nevertheless, has a street course racing background and gained on lefts and rights 5 instances within the O’Reilly Auto Components Sequence. He additionally has a high 10 this season at Watkins Glen Worldwide.
However widening the scope, Cindric and Keselowski sit squarely across the Chase cutoff line. Cindric is fifteenth in factors and has been above the provisional lower for seven of the final eight races, whereas the RFK Racing driver/proprietor has plummeted from ninth to nineteenth since Watkins Glen. Postseason strain is ramping up, and each of those drivers want sturdy weekends — which may probably begin a deep In-Season Problem run for one among them.
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UPSET WATCH: (No. 10) Christopher Bell
The Norman, Oklahoma, native is a three-time road-course winner, however Bell’s damage standing jeopardizes his possibilities of advancing out of Spherical 1. After struggling a fractured left wrist in a crash at Michigan Worldwide Speedway, Bell acquired clearance to race at Pocono Raceway, however exited his Toyota early final weekend at Naval Base Coronado. Eighteen-year-old Brent Crews took over on the first warning earlier than a mechanical failure ended the workforce’s day early in San Diego.
So will an identical driver swap process be so as at Sonoma? Regardless, Bell’s dealing with Ross Chastain within the opener, who’s stout on the street in his personal proper. The Trackhouse Racing driver’s first Cup win got here at Circuit of The Americas in 2022, and he’s using essentially the most momentum he’s had all season with consecutive top-10 finishes. Chastain owns a mean end of 11.5 within the Subsequent Gen automobile, fourth finest amongst energetic drivers on the monitor. With so many unknowns for the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing workforce this weekend, it’s exhausting to financial institution on Bell advancing.
