The NASCAR In-Season Problem is again this season, with a area of 32 Cup Sequence drivers competing for the $1 million prize. We’ve acquired a bracket set for the first-round matchups, with Spherical 1 going down this coming weekend at Sonoma Raceway. Now that we all know who’s going head-to-head, it’s time to make some picks.
Let’s dive into our Spherical 1 NASCAR In-Season Problem predictions for Sonoma.
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(1) Tyler Reddick vs (32) Alex Bowman
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It’s been a story of two seasons for Tyler Reddick and Alex Bowman. Within the first 16 factors races this yr, Reddick posted a median ending place of seven.2 with 10 top-fives. Alternatively, Bowman had a 23.4 common ending place with simply two top-fives. Even on an oval, we’d have picked Reddick to advance. At a highway course like Sonoma, it’s a fair simpler name.
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(16) Austin Cindric vs (17) Brad Keselowski
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Brad Keselowski and Austin Cindric are each searching for their first win this season however it’s definitely not coming at Sonoma Raceway. Within the final three races at this observe, Keselowski has three top-20 finishes whereas Cindric has a median end of 25.7 and has by no means ended a race inside the highest 20. Whereas Keselowski has struggled this summer season and his road-course observe document doesn’t bode nicely for advancing to Spherical 3, we do suppose he will get by Cindric at Sonoma.
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Advancing: Brad Keselowski
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(8) Daniel Suarez vs (25) Todd Gilliland
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Todd Gilliland has the misfortune of not solely dealing with Daniel Suarez when he’s having a career-best season, however having to go head-to-head towards him on a highway course. Suarez has the sixth-best profession common ending place (13.9) at Sonoma, whereas Gilliland is nineteenth (20.0). We’ll take the higher road-course driver with superior tools on Sunday.
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(9) Carson Hocevar vs (24) Zane Smith
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Carson Hocevar on a highway course is all the time a big gamble. It might be simple to select him on an oval to beat Zane Smith, however the driver of the No. 77 automobile can get a bit chaotic on highway programs. What’s working in his favor is Smith’s woes at Sonoma–25.7 common ending place–and his penchant to make some errors attributable to inexperience. We wouldn’t rule out Smith advancing if Hocevar wrecks, however the No. 77’s observe document this season suggests any wrecks he causes will by some means go away his automobile unscathed.
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Advancing: Carson Hocevar
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(12) Chase Briscoe vs (21) AJ Allmendinger
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This might technically rely as the primary ‘upset’ choose in our NASCAR In-Season Problem Predictions. Chase Briscoe is excellent behind the wheel of the No. 19 automobile and he snagged a second-place end final yr at Sonoma in his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing. With that mentioned, it’s a a lot safer wager to say that A.J. Allmendinger’s road-course excellence will snag him a top-10 end.
Advancing: A.J. Allmendinger
(5) Ty Gibbs vs (28) Austin Dillon
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For nearly as good as Ty Gibbs is on highway programs, Sonoma Raceway (20.7 common ending place) hasn’t been type to him. We have now, nevertheless, been actually impressed by the general consistency and skill to keep away from errors from the motive force of the No. 54 automobile this season. We have now Gibbs advancing, partially as a result of Austin Dillon’s personal historical past at Sonoma–zero top-10 finishes in 11 races–signifies he has a really low ceiling at this observe.
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(13) Bubba Wallace vs (20) Michael McDowell
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Ignore the seeding as we don’t suppose this is able to be a real upset within the NASCAR In-Season Problem. Bubba Wallace has made actual strides on highway programs, however this is likely one of the worst-case eventualities for him when it comes to potential matchups. Michael McDowell has completed tenth or higher in his final three races at Sonoma, putting within the high seven in 4 consecutive races right here. Barring catastrophe for McDowell, he ought to advance comfortably.
Advancing: Michael McDowell
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(4) Chase Elliott vs (29) Noah Gragson
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This isn’t a first-round bye for Chase Elliott, however it feels a bit prefer it. Noah Gragson has statistically been a below-average driver on highway programs, together with his finest end at Sonoma being twenty sixth two years in the past. In distinction, Elliott has persistently been one of many class of the sphere right here and he boasts the second-best common ending place (10.2) in Sonoma’s historical past.
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(2) Denny Hamlin vs (31) Ty Dillon
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It was only a yr in the past that Ty Dillon pulled off the massive upset within the NASCAR In-Season Problem, knocking out Denny Hamlin. It’s solely becoming that the 2 drivers go head-to-head one yr later. It may occur once more. Hamlin has a profession 20.1 common ending place at Sonoma, with a four-year stretch of ending twentieth or worse. Dillon (25.2 common end in six races) hasn’t been higher, however we’ll roll with the upset and say a DNF knocks Hamlin out within the first spherical.
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(15) Erik Jones vs (18) Joey Logano
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Joey Logano has basically exhausted his margin for error to make The Chase this season and he wants a powerful end at Sonoma simply to make up some floor on Erik Jones. Given Jones’ observe document right here–26.7 common ending place–we are inclined to imagine the No. 43 staff will prioritize stage factors on Sunday. That ought to give Logano an ideal likelihood to complete forward of him, advancing to the second spherical.
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(7) Chris Buescher vs (26) John Hunter Nemechek
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There are only a few drivers in NASCAR higher on highway programs than Chris Buescher. At Sonoma particularly, he’s completed inside the highest 5 in two of the final three years and he boasts the third-highest common ending place (13.1) on this observe amongst lively Cup drivers. Let’s rapidly evaluate that to John Hunter Nemechek, who has completed twenty ninth and twenty eighth right here over the past two seasons. It’s a simple choose to make.
Advancing: Chris Buescher
(10) Christopher Bell vs (23) Ross Chastain
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If Christopher Bell didn’t need to race with a fractured wrist, this is able to be among the finest matchups within the NASCAR In-Season Problem. Sadly, the wheelman of the No. 20 automobile is simply too restricted due to the damage and there’s all the time an opportunity that Joe Gibbs Racing might need to exchange him in some unspecified time in the future through the race if Sonoma proves too huge of a problem. Even when Bell makes it by means of the complete race, we simply don’t envision a situation the place his limitations enable him to beat Ross Chastain at a observe the place he’s completed top-10 in 4 of six races right here.
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(11) William Byron vs (22) Ricky Stenhouse Jr
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The 2026 Cup Sequence season hasn’t been a powerful one for William Byron and the No. 24 staff. Issues won’t get that a lot better at Sonoma, the place Byron has recorded simply two profession top-10 finishes in seven tries within the Cup Sequence. Nonetheless, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. has recorded simply two top-10 finishes in 19 profession road-course races. A top-16 end in all probability advances Byron previous Stenhouse.
(6) Kyle Larson vs (27) Riley Herbst
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Riley Herbst in all probability isn’t getting sufficient recognition for his enchancment this season and it’s why he’ll nonetheless be racing on the Cup degree in 2027 regardless of 23XI Racing transferring on from him. That is only a dangerous draw for him within the NASCAR In-Season Problem. Kyle Larson isn’t any SVG, however he has received at Sonoma and he’s completed tenth or higher in 4 of 11 profession Cup races right here. We predict one other top-10 is approaching Sunday, whereas Herbst in all probability finishes outdoors the highest 25.
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(14) Shane van Gisbergen vs (19) Ryan Preece
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There’s no evaluation required right here. Shane van Gisbergen is the perfect road-course driver in NASCAR historical past. Ryan Preece…just isn’t. Barring somebody inexplicably taking the No. 97 automobile out at Sonoma, he’s advancing and possibly profitable.
Advancing: Shane van Gisbergen
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(3) Ryan Blaney vs (30) Josh Berry
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It’s been a season to neglect for Josh Berry, as evidenced not too long ago by him saying Wooden Brothers Racing isn’t bringing him again in 2027. The No. 21 automobile simply hasn’t proven something this yr to counsel {that a} turnaround is coming and we’re terribly assured it received’t occur on a highway course. Ryan Blaney advances.
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