NASCAR’s return to The Chase this season and its modifications with factors scoring have confirmed to be a giant hit amongst drivers and followers. Now that we’re via 16 factors races this season within the Cup Collection, it is value projecting what may occur later this 12 months.
Let’s instantly dive proper into our predictions for a number of marquee NASCAR drivers who will not make it into The Chast this season.
Michael McDowell
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It has been an excellent 12 months for almost all of Spire Motorsports. By means of 16 races, Daniel Suarez and Carson Hocevar have every received a factors race and they’re each firmly within the top-10 factors leaders. Michael McDowell is on the opposite finish of the spectrum. The No. 71 automobile has recorded simply three top-10 finishes this season, his common ending place has dropped (15.69 to 16.38) and he is actually not performing that properly on ovals. Whereas we do suppose he’ll get again into The Chase combine within the subsequent two weeks at street programs, he’ll slide again down after that and end the common season in 18th.
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Bubba Wallace
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Bubba Wallace began out the season on a scorching streak. By means of the primary 5 races, he boasted an 8.8 common ending place and averaged 38.8 factors per race. Within the final 11 races, he has a mean ending place of 21.6 whereas averaging 18.2 factors per race. That’s the way you fall from a possible lock to make The Chase into being close to the bubble. It’s only going to worsen with San Diego and Sonoma arising. Poor finishes there’ll damage his metric rating, leading to a nasty qualifying place at EchoPark and probably North Wilkesboro. That will likely be pricey, as will the three DNFs and a number of wrecks that delivered performance-altering harm to the No. 23 automobile in Might. Nonetheless, when Wallace finishes the common season in seventeenth place, what’s going to maintain him out of the playoffs is the intentional contact into Carson Hocevar that simply value Wallace double-digit factors at Martinsville.
Ross Chastain
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Ross Chastain is arguably one of many 10 greatest drivers in NASCAR. Sadly, Trackhouse Racing and the No. 1 staff have appeared to be ill-prepared for this season. After 16 races, Chastain sits twenty third in factors behind the likes of AJ Allmendinger and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. After recording 12 top-10 finishes final 12 months, he has simply three on the season in 2026. Sadly for Chastain, Trackhouse has actually proven no indicators of an imminent turnaround. We expect the staff, together with some unhealthy luck on the observe, has put Chastain in deep sufficient of a gap that he’ll end nineteenth within the standings.
Ryan Preece
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Earlier within the season, it appeared like RFK Racing would get all three of its drivers into The Chase. Quick ahead to the center of June and each Ryan Preece and Brad Keselowski are under the cutline. Keselowski, even when his woes proceed within the subsequent two weeks, is simply too good of a driver and much too skilled to let this factor get away from him utterly. Preece, alternatively, is in a freefall along with his final top-10 end coming at Bristol and he has scored 30-plus factors in a race simply twice since COTA. With RFK’s precedence being on Keselowski and Chris Buescher, Preece will slip additional down the factors leaderboard and finish the common season properly under The Chase cutline.
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