How our F1 2026 pre-season predictions are wanting now

Because the 2026 F1 season restarts in Miami, our F1 writers revisit the pre-season predictions they made on the conclusion of winter testing in Bahrain. Who’s nonetheless on monitor and who’s wanting foolish already?

Constructors: That is how we voted

Standings after 3 races
Ronald Vording
Jake Boxall-Legge
Filip Cleeren

1. Mercedes
Mercedes
Mercedes
Mercedes

2. Ferrari
Ferrari
Ferrari
McLaren

3. McLaren
McLaren
McLaren
Ferrari

4. Haas
Purple Bull
Purple Bull
Purple Bull

5. Alpine
Alpine
Alpine
Alpine

6. Purple Bull
Haas
Haas
Williams

7. Racing Bulls
Racing Bulls
Racing Bulls
Haas

8. Audi
Williams
Williams
Racing Bulls

9. Williams
Audi
Audi
Aston Martin

10. Cadillac
Aston Martin
Aston Martin
Audi

11. Aston Martin
Cadillac
Cadillac
Cadillac

No surprises on the entrance

Ronald Vording: “Relating to the groups, it ought to come as no shock that I’m sticking with my prediction for the constructors’ champion. George Russell is correct that Mercedes’ benefit received’t final endlessly, however its decline will probably be gradual — and the crew’s edge over the primary three race weekends was truly a bit greater than it appeared, partly masked by the yo-yo racing.

“If I had been to vary something within the high three, I’d now rank McLaren second. The beginning of the season has been difficult for Andrea Stella’s crew, however it has made vital progress in understanding the ability unit since Melbourne, and its growth on the chassis facet has historically been sturdy.

“Behind them, I anticipate Purple Bull to get well considerably over time — not sufficient to problem the highest three groups, however sufficient to finally beat Alpine to the ‘better of the remaining’ place behind Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari. As for the remaining, I might solely swap Audi and Williams, though the Grove-based crew might nonetheless make vital positive factors because it continues to cut back weight.”

Haas is defying expectations up to now with an early fourth place within the standings as Purple Bull struggles.

Photograph by: Alastair Staley / LAT Pictures by way of Getty Pictures

Jake Boxall-Legge: “By way of the groups’ aggressive order to this point, I believe I used to be within the ballpark. Mercedes and Ferrari, per testing, at all times regarded a step forward, though McLaren is catching the Prancing Horses now that it is bought its begins collectively.

“I believe one might make a straightforward change and swap Audi and Williams round, however I can not actually quibble with the remaining; whereas Haas and Alpine are presently forward of Purple Bull within the championship, this is not essentially an indicator of tempo at this stage. We’re within the fascinating a part of the season the place groups begin placing their greater growth objects collectively, so there’s each probability that this might shuffle round.

“My picks of Aston Martin and Cadillac on the rear most likely will not change in the interim, except Cadillac has discovered greater than a second per lap, and if Aston Martin and Honda have ironed out their mixed points…”

Filip Cleeren: “I had McLaren forward of Ferrari for second and I nonetheless really feel fairly good about that. I nonetheless again the papaya squad to get forward on the long-term and I am curious to see how a lot the crew’s Miami Grand Prix improve package deal goes to be a step in that course.

“The place I’ve deviated subsequent is Williams, and I have been fairly unsuitable up to now on the crew confirming its upward pattern from 2025, with a automotive that’s extra chubby and underdeveloped than initially anticipated. And the way might none of us had predicted Haas in fourth?! Disappointing! I believe it is simply the beginning of what is going to be an in depth season-long battle that may maintain fluctuating as groups convey upgrades, and that is what we need to see.”

Drivers: That is how we voted

Standings after 3 races
Ronald Vording
Jake Boxall-Legge
Filip Cleeren

1. Kimi Antonelli
George Russell
George Russell
George Russell

2. George Russell
Charles Leclerc
Charles Leclerc
Charles Leclerc

3. Charles Leclerc
Max Verstappen
Kimi Antonelli
Lando Norris

4. Lewis Hamilton
Lando Norris
Lando Norris
Max Verstappen

5. Lando Norris
Oscar Piastri
Max Verstappen
Oscar Piastri

6. Kimi Antonelli
Kimi Antonelli
Oscar Piastri
Lewis Hamilton

7. Oliver Bearman
Lewis Hamilton
Lewis Hamilton
Kimi Antonelli

8. Pierre Gasly
Isack Hadjar
Isack Hadjar
Isack Hadjar

9. Max Verstappen
Pierre Gasly
Pierre Gasly
Pierre Gasly

10. Liam Lawson
Oliver Bearman
Oliver Bearman
Alex Albon

We underestimated Kimi Antonelli

Filip Cleeren: “My greatest gaffe was Kimi Antonelli on the drivers’ facet, who I had solely put seventh. I’m very happy to be confirmed unsuitable by the Italian teen, who appears to be like like he is figured it out and may give George Russell and run for his cash. I nonetheless suppose Russell is the person to beat, although.” 

Ronald Vording: “Yeah, on the subject of the drivers, it’s clear that I additionally rated Antonelli far too low in my preliminary predictions. That’s partly as a result of Mercedes look like even additional forward than initially anticipated, however above all as a result of the younger Italian has made a robust impression over the primary three race weekends. After all, he’ll inevitably make errors, however even taking that into consideration, I might nonetheless promote him to second place within the up to date predictions.

“Given Purple Bull’s points, it additionally is smart to put each McLaren drivers in addition to Lewis Hamilton forward of Max Verstappen. The Miami race weekend ought to give us a bit extra readability — particularly to see whether or not Purple Bull now absolutely understands the (vital) points with the RB22 — however even then, there may be nonetheless a number of work to be achieved in Milton Keynes.”

Kimi Antonelli has grown up faster than anticipated with Mercedes, main the standings after three weekends.

Photograph by: Sona Maleterova / Getty Pictures

Jake Boxall-Legge: “I had Russell Leclerc, and Antonelli as my high three, though not presently in the precise order; I possibly thought Ferrari and Leclerc is perhaps nearer, and did not anticipate Antonelli to be difficult Russell fairly a lot (though Russell has had fairly a number of points on his finish).

“Hamilton has been undersold, so I have never achieved properly there – though it wasn’t completely clear on the time that he’d get right into a groove with the brand new vehicles. Verstappen, in the meantime, has a automotive that up to now hasn’t delivered; I slotted him between the McLaren drivers, however I might need to put him beneath the Mercedes, Ferrari, and McLaren drivers if we had been having one other go. Pierre Gasly and Ollie Bearman have been the very best of the midfielders although, and I had them within the high 10 – so I’m naturally (up to now) delighted with my new-found clairvoyance…” 

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