The Components 1 drivers’ championship might be determined in a three-way showdown that takes place this weekend on Abu Dhabi’s Yas Marina circuit.
Lando Norris leads Pink Bull’s Max Verstappen by 12 factors and McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri by 16 as they head to a observe that has hosted various dramatic climaxes previously.
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This weekend has all of the elements to be one other.
Norris, together with his vital factors benefit, goes into the weekend as an on-paper favorite.
However Verstappen has gained 5 of the eight races earlier than Abu Dhabi and is in a far less complicated place than two drivers working out of the identical McLaren storage.
Who has one of the best automotive?
McLaren’s drivers have mixed for a complete rating of 800 factors within the constructors’ championship, permitting them to seal that title with six races of the season to spare [EPA]
The McLaren has been the quickest automotive on common over the season. It has a big benefit on common qualifying tempo – 0.274 seconds over the season, and 0.203secs over the previous eight races.
However wins are break up evenly between all three drivers this 12 months – Norris, Verstappen and Piastri all have seven every. The opposite two grand prix victories have been taken by Mercedes’ George Russell.
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McLaren have dominated the constructors’ championship, which they clinched on the Singapore Grand Prix on the primary weekend in October, with six races remaining.
However that’s reflection of getting two aggressive drivers in a persistently race-winning automotive. No different staff has had the posh of these two elements collectively.
Verstappen, in contrast, has scored greater than 92% of all his staff’s factors this 12 months – team-mate Yuki Tsunoda has been nowhere close to him and of no assist by any means within the Dutchman’s title marketing campaign, and has been dropped by Pink Bull for subsequent season consequently.
Competitiveness has ebbed and flowed by way of the season, and every automotive has particular strengths.
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Verstappen gained the Qatar Grand Prix final weekend solely due to McLaren’s technique error. In any other case, that observe’s long-duration medium- and high-speed corners have been excellent McLaren territory.
Abu Dhabi additionally has some lengthy corners – particularly the hairpin on to the primary lengthy straight and the lengthy Flip 9 on the finish of the second primary straight.
However the McLaren just isn’t at its finest within the type of short-duration, 90-degree corners that comprise the ultimate sector across the marina and resort, or when braking into chicanes.
And the Pink Bull has one of the best straight-line pace.
So, when it comes to observe traits, the battle appears finely balanced.
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McLaren have taken pole place on the previous 4 races. Over the season, Norris and Verstappen are tied on seven poles every, with Piastri scoring six.
Who has one of the best historical past on this observe?
Verstappen has gained 4 occasions in Abu Dhabi, taking each race victory from 2020-23.
However his win in 2021 was extraordinarily controversial – that was the title showdown with Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes, the place Verstappen gained solely after the then-race director made up the principles throughout a late safety-car interval.
It is also not a good comparability between the three drivers.
For a begin, that is solely Piastri’s third season in F1. Norris has been in F1 since 2019 and Verstappen since 2015.
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However Norris didn’t have an excellent vaguely aggressive automotive till 2023, whereas Verstappen has been successful races on and off since 2016.
And Norris was dominant on his technique to victory in Abu Dhabi final 12 months.
Type
Competitiveness has fluctuated by way of the season, between each drivers and groups.
Within the first half of the season, the Pink Bull was aggressive with the McLaren solely on circuits with a predominance of high-speed corners, corresponding to Japan, Saudi Arabia and Imola.
Piastri was the stronger McLaren driver on steadiness over the primary 14 races of the season, whereas Norris struggled with sure components of the automotive’s behaviour.
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However Norris has come on sturdy for the reason that summer season break, overhauling what had been a 34-point lead for Piastri on the finish of August.
Pink Bull had a stoop in kind by way of the summer season, by the top of which Verstappen was 104 factors off the championship lead.
However tweaks to their automotive for the Italian Grand Prix firstly of September reworked their season, and Verstappen went on a run of three wins and a second place in 4 races by way of September and October.
Prior to now two races, Verstappen was the stronger in Las Vegas and McLaren in Qatar. However Abu Dhabi is a really completely different observe from each of these.
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Staff dynamic
McLaren’s activity is the extra sophisticated. They’ve two drivers in competition and have pledged to permit them each to compete pretty till one is not in competition for the championship.
However the staff’s clear acknowledged purpose is for one in every of their drivers to win the title – they usually do not thoughts which. So do not rule out staff ways of 1 type or one other at McLaren.
For instance, if Verstappen is successful and Piastri within the prime three with Norris fourth, that will make the Dutchman champion. But when Piastri dropped again to let Norris into the highest three, Norris would win the title.
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In these circumstances, it could be anticipated for McLaren to ask Piastri to help Norris – however solely at such a degree when it is clear the Australian’s hopes have been over.
At Pink Bull, Verstappen is on his personal. Besides, that’s, if a McLaren finds itself one way or the other behind one of many different three Pink Bull-owned automobiles – Tsunoda and the 2 Racing Bulls of Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson.
If that is the case, anticipate them to make themselves as laborious as potential to cross – as Sergio Perez did to Hamilton in 2021, finally enjoying a decisive position in how the race performed out.
Mentality
Can he make it 5 titles? If he does, Max Verstappen will equal Michael Schumacher’s document for consecutive drivers’ championships, set between 2000-04 [Getty Images]
The strain is actually higher on Norris than anybody else.
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All 12 months, McLaren have regarded just like the staff who will ship the drivers’ title, and he’s the person main the championship.
On the identical time, that is his first likelihood to win the title, and McLaren’s first drivers’ title likelihood since Hamilton gained in 2008.
Sure, Hamilton was in mathematical competition in 2010, however 24 factors behind with solely 25 obtainable, so not likely within the image.
As well as, McLaren have been basically restructured since then, and whereas staff principal Andrea Stella has been concerned in title fights beforehand – working with Michael Schumacher, Kimi Raikkonen and Fernando Alonso – a lot of the staff haven’t.
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Their relative rawness has proven at occasions this 12 months, particularly in Qatar, once they have been the one staff to not take the chance to pit underneath a security automotive, and misplaced the win consequently.
There’ll probably have been some soul-searching and in-depth evaluation previously days as a consequence. Some nervousness and nervousness could be comprehensible.
Pink Bull and Verstappen, in the meantime, are absolutely versed on this state of affairs. They’ve gained the previous 4 drivers’ titles and are a ruthless, finely honed successful machine.
And as a staff and driver who’ve carried out it earlier than, and as well as didn’t anticipate to be on this state of affairs, the strain is off.
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Verstappen has repeatedly mentioned “it will not change my life” whether or not he wins or not.
After Qatar, he mentioned: “It reveals all the pieces is feasible. We’ve got nothing to lose so I simply go there and attempt to maximise the automotive and hope we is usually a little bit extra aggressive than right here however we’ll see.”
