On the 2024 Miami Grand Prix Lando Norris captured his first System 1 victory, holding off Max Verstappen to take the checkered flag. However with Sergio Pérez ending fourth, and each Crimson Bull drivers ending on the rostrum within the F1 Dash race, Crimson Bull banked 44 factors over the weekend and left South Seashore atop the Constructors’ Championship standings.
A lot has modified since then.
Miami marked the final time throughout all of 2024 that Pérez left a race weekend with double-digit factors, scoring simply 49 factors over the remainder of the marketing campaign. Whereas Verstappen scored 301 factors over the rest of the 2024 season, en path to his fourth F1 Drivers’ Championship, it was not sufficient for Crimson Bull to carry on atop the standings, and so they tumbled to 3rd.
Shortly after the season, the axe fell. Pérez was out, and Liam Lawson was in.
After all, in case you are studying this you in all probability know that Lawson has fared little higher over his first two races with Crimson Bull. He has but to attain a single level, and certified in P20 for each the F1 Dash race and the Grand Prix itself final weekend on the Chinese language Grand Prix. That signifies that courting again to the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix final season Verstappen has scored 337 of Crimson Bull’s 386 factors.
Whereas these outcomes have been sufficient for Verstappen to seize his fourth consecutive Drivers’ Championship, they value the crew one other Constructors’ title. And with Crimson Bull presently sitting third within the standings, 42 factors behind McLaren after simply two race weekends, there may be already hypothesis that they’ll make a change.
Ought to Crimson Bull make a transfer? And in that case, who will get that seat?
Let’s dive in.
Ought to Crimson Bull change Liam Lawson?
The second seat at Crimson Bull is usually a matter of hypothesis, given the crew’s current historical past. Throughout Verstappen’s run on the crew, courting again to 2016, he has had 5 totally different teammates: Daniel Ricciardo, Alex Albon, Pierre Gasly, Pérez, and now Lawson.
And he slid into the seat when the crew parted methods with Daniil Kvyat.
The crew will not be identified for having an amazing quantity of persistence, and it’s that historic lack of persistence — coupled with the current lack of outcomes as famous above — that has led to the hypothesis round Lawson’s tenure. Tales following the Chinese language Grand Prix indicated {that a} choice to exchange Lawson for the Japanese Grand Prix had been all however made, and whereas Crimson Bull Group Principal Christian Horner did his greatest to dismiss these rumors as paddock “hypothesis,” he didn’t deny that Lawson was beneath stress.
Horner additionally conceded that for Crimson Bull to be aggressive in each the Drivers’ Championship (with Verstappen) and the Constructors’ race they want two drivers close to the entrance.
“The Constructors’ Championship is a really robust ask, and we have to make important progress with the automotive to be able to even problem for that. You need to have two vehicles scoring, that clearly damage us badly final yr,” stated Horner after the Chinese language Grand Prix.
“Now we have to have two vehicles in there, and even to compete for the Drivers’, you’ve bought to have one other automotive in play. It’s vitally necessary for the crew to make sure that we have now each drivers operating as near the entrance as we will.”
Nonetheless, a choice to sack Lawson after simply two race weekends would stand out as a knee-jerk transfer even amidst Crimson Bull’s current historical past. And there may be some important context that deserves consideration. In any case, Lawson had by no means raced at both Albert Park or the Shanghai Worldwide Circuit. His RB21 suffered a mechanical situation throughout observe on the Australian Grand Prix, after which he was tasked with racing within the rain. The format of the Chinese language Grand Prix gave him only one hour of observe earlier than qualifying for the F1 Dash race, not a lot time to stand up to hurry in a automotive that’s even giving Verstappen some hassle.
The upcoming race weekends — Japan, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia — are all circuits the place Lawson has raced earlier than.
Making a swap proper now, with all that context, appears fairly untimely.
Even with Crimson Bull’s current historical past.
If Crimson Bull makes a change who ought to get the seat?
Let’s assume for the second that Crimson Bull decides two races is sufficient, the race for the Constructors’ title is getting late early, and they should make a transfer.
Who’s the most suitable choice for that seat?
The plain reply, and the driving force being linked with a swap, is Yuki Tsunoda. Whereas Tsunoda has scored in simply the F1 Dash race this season, he has certified inside the highest ten in all three occasions this yr, and have been it not for some technique selections at Visa Money App Racing Bulls in each the Australian Grand Prix and the Chinese language Grand Prix — in addition to a sudden failure to his entrance wing in Shanghai — we is perhaps speaking about Tsunoda having scored in all three races this season.
His efficiency this yr, coupled with the following cease on the circuit being his dwelling race, has solely heightened the hypothesis concerning a swap.
Many, myself included, believed Tsunoda was the precise choice for Crimson Bull when the crew determined to exchange Pérez within the first place. However having handed over Tsunoda final winter, Crimson Bull might belatedly give him a shot alongside Verstappen now.
Whereas Tsunoda stated final weekend that he would welcome such a transfer, others usually are not so positive. F1 analyst and former driver Raif Schumacher, talking on the Chinese language Grand Prix, warned Tsunoda off such a swap.
“I wouldn’t advocate it to anybody,” Schumacher defined. “If I have been Tsunoda’s supervisor, I wouldn’t advise him to go there, as a result of in the meanwhile, the Racing Bull is the higher automotive, and Tsunoda is doing very properly with it. Transferring to Crimson Bull wouldn’t do him any favors.
“I additionally consider that [Red Bull Technical Director Pierre] Waché will not be essentially overwhelmed by the duty, however he doesn’t have it beneath management. This was meant to be a growth idea, however he already struggled with it final yr, and now with the brand new automotive, he nonetheless hasn’t figured it out. So I actually can’t think about why he would abruptly have the ability to repair it now.”
In the intervening time the VCARB02 is a extra constant automotive, with an even bigger working window, than the RB21. A transfer to Crimson Bull might put Tsunoda in a more durable place.
However given that it’s the promotion he has been looking for, it might be exhausting to say no.
In the end, Crimson Bull ought to present somewhat persistence right here. Having determined to slip Lawson into the seat subsequent to Verstappen, they should give this transfer, and the younger driver, time.
Whether or not historical past, and math, will see Crimson Bull give him that point, nevertheless, is a special query.
