The NASCAR In-Season Problem received underway this previous Sunday at Sonoma Raceway. The 32-driver bracket shortly thinned itself out, and now, main into Week 2 of the five-week problem, the competition will take to Chicagoland Speedway.
Within the first week of the problem, just a few upsets occurred, not like in 2025. A 12 months in the past, Ty Dillon was a Cinderella story that made it to the ultimate Spherical, dropping to Ty Gibbs. The seeds within the semifinals have been: No. 6, 12, 23, and 32. In 2026, solely three drivers seeded twentieth or worse stay among the many final 16 left: Michael McDowell (20; Def. Bubba Wallace), Todd Gilliland (25; Def. Daniel Suarez), and Alex Bowman (32; Def. Tyler Reddick).
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The present favourite to win all of it is none apart from driver standings’ chief, Denny Hamlin. Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney will chase proper behind, however concern not, uncertainty is within the air, and upsets are sure to proceed to occur. Listed here are the Spherical of 16 Matchups.
No. 32 Alex Bowman vs. No. 16 Austin Cindric
Alex Bowman Celebrates 2019 Victory at Chicagoland Speedway. (Photograph by Matt Sullivan/Getty Photos)(Photograph by Matt Sullivan/Getty Photos)
Bowman is the defending champion at Chicagoland, having finished so once they final raced the oval in 2019. Cindric is the present bubble driver, sixteenth within the driver standings. Edge: Alex Bowman.
No. 25 Todd Gilliland vs. No. 9 Carson Hocevar
Gilliland upset Suarez final week at Sonoma, however hardly so by ending in twenty ninth place. His common end in 2026 is 21.7. Hocevar, in the meantime, has a race win and a top-10 driver standing to his title. Edge: Carson Hocevar.
No. 12 Chase Briscoe vs. No. 5 Ty Gibbs
This matchup of teammates is the fiercest of the week. Gibbs has 11 top-10 finishes in 2026, plus one race win. Briscoe has 8 top-10 finishes and a near-win at Sonoma Raceway final week. Edge: Neither driver; 50-50 shot.
No. 20 Michael McDowell vs. No. 4 Chase Elliott
McDowell’s power has been proven by back-to-back top-10 finishes on street programs (Sonoma, San Diego). Elliott expects to offer McDowell all he can deal with, having 2 wins beneath his belt in 2026. Edge: Chase Elliott.
No. 2 Denny Hamlin vs. No. 15 Erik Jones
Hamlin is rightfully the problem favourite. He has 5 race wins, together with the All-Star race, in 2026, and a median end of 9.2 on the season. Jones is in robust type on ovals, averaging a end of seven.0 in his final 5 races on such monitor sorts. Edge: Denny Hamlin.
No. 7 Chris Buescher vs. No. 10 Christopher Bell
This matchup is among the many most thrilling of the week, behind Briscoe vs. Gibbs and Byron vs. Larson. Buescher has a 50% top-10 price in 2026. Bell handled a wrist fracture however proved nonetheless quick with a Fifth-place end at Sonoma. He’s the quickest driver, a Toyota driver for the OEM, who has received 11 of 18 races this season.Edge: Christopher Bell.
No. 11 William Byron vs. Kyle Larson
One other battle of teammates options Byron vs. Larson. Byron’s season is a step beneath expectations, twelfth within the driver standings. Larson is winless in over a 12 months however nonetheless Fifth within the driver standings with 11 top-10 finishes. Edge: Kyle Larson.
No. 14 Shane van Gisbergen vs. No. 3 Ryan Blaney
This isn’t a street course, and for that purpose, Blaney is the largest favourite of the week. He’s third within the driver standings with essentially the most top-10 finishes (13) of any driver in 2026. Van Gisbergen solely has 1 top-10 end on a non-superspeedway oval on this calendar 12 months (Nashville). Edge: Ryan Blaney.
Trying Forward within the In-Season Problem
Chicagoland Speedway hosts the Spherical of 16, with three extra weeks to go thereafter. NASCAR rigorously designed its schedule to race very totally different monitor setups throughout the five-week occasion.
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Quarterfinals: EchoPark (Atlanta) Speedway — 1.5-mile superspeedway.
Semifinals: North Wilkesboro Speedway — .625-mile brief monitor.
Champions Spherical: Indianapolis Motor Speedway — 2.5-mile flat rectangular monitor.
Time will inform who turns into victorious. The winner of the In-Season Problem will earn $1 million.
This story was initially printed by Athlon Sports activities on Jul 1, 2026, the place it first appeared within the Racing part. Add Athlon Sports activities as a Most popular Supply by clicking right here.
