After two grands prix and one dash race within the 2026 System 1 season, Mercedes has received each single occasion thus far. Nonetheless, these victories weren’t fairly as easy because the outcomes would possibly counsel.
In all three races, the Silver Arrows needed to defend critically in opposition to Ferrari. Particularly, Ferrari’s sturdy race begins allowed the Scuderia to take the lead initially on every event.
Up to now, although, Ferrari has been unable to transform these moments right into a race win, as a result of Mercedes nonetheless possesses the quicker general bundle. The important thing query due to this fact is: how shut is Ferrari really to its first grand prix victory of the season – and is the group a real contender within the battle for the world championship?
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The place Ferrari is shedding time to Mercedes
A have a look at the information supplies some first clues. On the season opener in Australia, Ferrari was 0.809 seconds behind Mercedes’ pole place time in qualifying. In Shanghai, that hole shrank to “solely” 0.351 seconds. The principle cause lies in vitality administration: in Melbourne, this issue performed a a lot greater function, permitting the Mercedes energy unit to use its benefit extra strongly.
Within the corners, nonetheless, the Ferrari SF-26 seems to be virtually on par with Mercedes – maybe even barely faster. The sector knowledge from qualifying in China factors in that path. A big portion of the deficit of simply over three and a half tenths occurred within the remaining sector with its lengthy straight.
In Q3 in Shanghai, Mercedes was solely 0.060 seconds quicker than Ferrari within the first sector of the circuit. Within the twisty second sector, which comprises just about no straights, Charles Leclerc really set the quickest time – 0.004 seconds faster than Kimi Antonelli. Solely within the top-speed-dominated third sector was Mercedes capable of achieve vital time.
There, Lewis Hamilton misplaced 0.148 seconds to polesitter Antonelli, whereas Leclerc dropped 0.263 seconds. An identical sample appeared throughout Sunday’s race: Ferrari was aggressive within the second sector and misplaced solely barely within the first sector, however the largest deficit once more emerged in sector three.
The telemetry knowledge clearly reveals the issue. Mercedes not solely reaches the next high pace but in addition loses considerably much less pace on the finish of the straight due to what’s often known as “super-clipping”. This issue performed a decisive function in Australia particularly. Tremendous-clipping was particularly pronounced there and allowed Mercedes to construct a bigger benefit.
Prime pace just isn’t Ferrari’s solely drawback
Picture by: Andy Hone/ LAT Photos by way of Getty Photos
Lack of high pace just isn’t Ferrari’s solely drawback
Decreasing the deficit solely to an absence of high pace can be too simplistic – though engine efficiency undoubtedly accounts for the most important share of the efficiency distinction. One other key issue seems to be tyre administration.
Already in Melbourne, it grew to become obvious that the Ferrari labored considerably higher on the medium tyres at the beginning of the race. Leclerc was capable of defend in opposition to George Russell for a very long time, though the usage of enhance mode doubtless additionally performed a task and should have artificially stored Leclerc on the entrance.
Nonetheless, the second stint painted a distinct image. Ferrari was working exhausting tyres that have been 13 laps brisker than Mercedes’. In keeping with the information, that ought to have produced a tempo benefit of roughly 9 tenths per lap. In actuality, Leclerc was solely three hundredths of a second per lap quicker than Russell. The exhausting C3 compound due to this fact appeared to work considerably much less successfully on the Ferrari.
In China, a distinct sample emerged. Ferrari was capable of match Mercedes significantly properly in the beginning of the stints, however later was overtaken and ultimately distanced. The section following the security automobile restart on lap 14 is particularly attention-grabbing.
Ferrari initially managed not solely to retake the place from Russell on observe but in addition held him behind for fairly a while. Evidently, the Ferrari introduced the tyres as much as temperature extra shortly. However as soon as Russell lastly handed the Ferraris once more on lap 29, a transparent efficiency drop adopted.
Antonelli was round three tenths faster in his Mercedes
Picture by: Lars Baron / Getty Photos
Between lap 14 and lap 29, the Ferrari drivers averaged a lap time of 1:37.2. Antonelli on the entrance recorded a median lap time of 1:36.9 over the identical interval – solely three tenths quicker. And that is even if the Ferraris have been continuously battling one another and Russell throughout that section.
Nonetheless, if the interval from lap 30 to lap 56 is taken into account, the image modifications dramatically. Mercedes averaged 1:35.8 per lap, whereas Ferrari managed only one:36.5. The deficit due to this fact instantly elevated to seven tenths per lap – though the extraordinary wheel-to-wheel battles had largely ended by then.
Knowledge suggests Mercedes holds the benefit in tyre administration
A more in-depth have a look at the tyre degradation knowledge supplies a doable clarification. Total tyre put on in Shanghai was comparatively low, making a one-stop technique completely possible. Even so, variations between the groups grew to become seen.
Over the total race distance, Mercedes misplaced a median of 0.021 seconds per lap on account of tyre degradation. Ferrari, in contrast, misplaced 0.037 seconds per lap.
After the primary two races, a possible sample is starting to emerge: Mercedes apparently takes a bit of longer to convey the tyres into the optimum working window, however can maintain them there for considerably longer. The Mercedes due to this fact suffers much less degradation than the Ferrari, particularly in the direction of the top of stints.
Nonetheless, it’s nonetheless too early within the season for a definitive conclusion.
Ferrari is on the rostrum, however nonetheless removed from the entrance
Picture by: Lintao Zhang / LAT Photos by way of Getty Photos
Ferrari farther from the entrance than in 2025
A very sobering perspective emerges when evaluating race tempo. In Australia, Ferrari was 0.64 seconds per lap slower than Mercedes – after correcting for technique variations. In China, the hole was 0.58 seconds per lap. This leads to a present season common deficit of 0.61 seconds per lap.
With such a niche, Ferrari would even have struggled to achieve Q3 final yr. Nonetheless, the brand new laws have stretched the sphere additional aside general. In 2025, Ferrari was solely the fourth-fastest automobile within the subject, however over the course of the season it was nonetheless on common “solely” 0.55 seconds per lap behind McLaren in race tempo.
The qualifying deficit was additionally smaller again then. In 2025, Ferrari was on common about 0.44 seconds behind the championship-winning group. Within the present 2026 season, after simply two races, the hole to Mercedes already stands at 0.58 seconds. Statistically talking, Ferrari is due to this fact additional away from the entrance than it was final yr.
Mercedes dominance: Ferrari removed from a title problem
In different phrases, Mercedes at the moment seems extraordinarily dominant – to an extent not seen because the starting of the hybrid period. The present benefit even exceeds McLaren’s dominance in 2025 (0.31 seconds), in addition to Purple Bull’s dominance in 2023 (0.57 seconds), when Max Verstappen received 19 of the 22 races.
Even in 2020 – the yr of the well-known DAS system and 13 wins from 17 races – Mercedes was statistically much less dominant. At the moment the typical benefit over Purple Bull was 0.55 seconds. Comparable dominance was final seen between 2014 and 2016 – once more by Mercedes.
Mercedes is as dominant now because it was in 2014
Picture by: Rainer Schlegelmilch / Getty Photos
Given these figures, Ferrari’s possibilities within the battle for the world championship seem questionable. A rule of thumb in System 1 means that groups sometimes discover about eight tenths of a second in lap time via improvement over the course of a yr, together with the winter break.
Making use of that rule to the present scenario, Ferrari is at the moment virtually a complete improvement yr behind Mercedes. On the similar time, it should be assumed that the Silver Arrows may also proceed bettering their automobile. Nonetheless, improvement charges might at the moment be greater than ordinary, as the brand new laws are nonetheless in an early section.
One factor is for certain: Ferrari remains to be clearly far-off from having a automobile able to preventing for victories on pure tempo. The sturdy begins and quite a few – typically artificially created via battery deployment – battles with Mercedes can due to this fact simply create a deceptive impression.
The fact for the time being is evident: Mercedes is dominant. Extra dominant than ever. And Ferrari nonetheless has a variety of work forward.
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