When NASCAR introduced the return of The Chase championship format forward of the 2026 season, the choice acquired overwhelming reward from drivers across the sport. Whereas we’re solely three races into the season, there are a couple of large names within the Cup Collection who might now be in jeopardy come time for the Chase.
Let’s dive into our record of the 4 NASCAR drivers who’re already in some bother below the brand new Chase championship format.
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Austin Cindric
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Within the No. 2 for Group Penske, Austin Cindric has the tools and supporting solid to be a perennial playoff contender in a 16-driver subject. He reached the Spherical of 12 in 2025, 2024, and 2022. The truth that NASCAR introduced again The Chase with 16 drivers making it in ought to imply that Cindric has a comparatively straightforward path to creating it in. Nonetheless, popping out of Circuit of the Americas, he’s thirty first on the factors leaderboard and 29 factors behind Ryan Preece. Whereas that’s a small hole given there are 23 races remaining within the common season, Cindric is additional again of drivers who many considered as borderline playoff contenders like Shane van Gisbergen (51-point hole), Michael McDowell (44-point hole), Carson Hocevar (43-point hole) and Brad Keselowski (39-point hole). Cindric has given himself little or no margin for error shifting ahead. There’s now an actual likelihood he might be the one Group Penske driver to overlook the playoffs, which might be the second time within the final 4 years he didn’t make it in. Not precisely a fantastic final result in a contract 12 months.
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Alex Bowman
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Possibly the theme within the first season of The Chase’s return might be drivers from a pair of NASCAR’s high groups not even making it into the ultimate 16. On the very least, that’s turn out to be an more and more doubtless actuality for Alex Bowman and the No. 48 workforce. Teammates William Byron and Kyle Larson have each had some points this season, however they every have greater than 3 times as many factors as Bowman (23 factors) by three races. Bowman has the worst common ending place (33.0) of full-time drivers; in the meantime, even Cody Ware (37 factors and 24.7 common ending place) is outperforming the motive force who has Hendrick Motorsports tools and a great employees round him. Provided that Bowman has only one Cup Collection win since 2023, it’s not even like he has a great shot on the 15-point bonus for going to victory lane. Lacking the playoffs virtually feels inevitable, and if that occurs in 2026, it’s honest to surprise precisely what workforce can have a spot for Bowman at this degree subsequent season.
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Austin Dillon
Michael C. Johnson-Imagn Photographs
We may be approaching that point the place Austin Dillon must be considering extra about his future as the following decision-maker of Richard Childress Racing than making the playoffs as a driver. Dillon made the playoffs below the win-and-in format final season, however that’s been the one motive lately he’s obtained a ticket to the 16-driver playoff subject. That’s now off the desk; Dillon already finds himself 33 factors again of the sixteenth and remaining spot in The Chase, and that hole appears more likely to widen within the weeks to come back. He’ll be 36 years outdated in April, so maybe one of the best path to perennial playoff competition for Dillon is because the architect of RCR’s future lineup.
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Denny Hamlin
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Denny Hamlin stated that he was extraordinarily assured the NASCAR Cup Collection champion in 2026 would end the common season within the high three. That’s as a result of The Chase format offers such a factors benefit to the highest three drivers that anybody behind them would wish to go on a dominant run by the 10-race Chase to have any actual shot at successful all of it by Homestead. Sadly for Hamlin, he’s already 54 factors behind third (Chase Elliott) and even additional again of Bubba Wallace in second (56-point hole), and he trails Tyler Reddick in first by 126 factors. May he overtake Wallace? It’s doable. Nonetheless, the No. 11 is now able the place even a couple of DNFs, the remaining street programs and some days outdoors the highest 10 would possibly hold him out of that high three. Given what he stated only a few weeks in the past, Hamlin’s championship hopes are fading.
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