Can Abu Dhabi ship the 2025 title finale that F1 deserves?

The Yas Marina circuit will not be essentially the most thrilling race observe of System 1’s 24-race calendar, however because the stage for F1’s first three-way thriller in 15 years there are sufficient eventualities for Abu Dhabi to reside as much as its dramatic fame.

On paper, the indicators aren’t too promising. The final 10 editions of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix have been gained from pole, with the second-placed qualifier ending in the identical place six occasions.

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McLaren could also be anticipated to have a slight edge on race tempo, primarily based on FP2 a minimum of, however one could be courageous to guess towards polesitter Max Verstappen doing something apart from cruising to the win, his eighth of the 2025 season that might carry him above title rivals Lando Norris (second) and Oscar Piastri (third).

However it’s going to take much more than an easy cruise for the four-time world champion so as to add a fifth title to his tally, and all eyes will now be on McLaren to ship beneath strain after scoring two big own-goals – a double disqualification in Las Vegas and a botched technique name in Qatar.

To this point, Norris has finished his half. The championship chief delivered on the ultimate lap of Q3 to climb from fourth to second on the grid. All that separates him from a maiden world title is a clear race to a podium.

The Flip 1 issue

It means Norris’ method at Flip 1 will seemingly be to attempt to maintain station and guarantee he has exit, somewhat than make an ill-judged lunge to grab the lead away from Verstappen.

“I believe from Lando’s perspective, contemplating the within in nook one, I believe he’ll simply be comparatively prudent,” McLaren staff boss Andrea Stella defined. “It is a type of the place from the within not essentially you get the higher exit, the automotive on the surface can shut, so I believe there will likely be some prudence, which is I believe what I might suggest.”

Yuki Tsunoda, Pink Bull Racing Crew

Photograph by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Photographs through Getty Photographs

Flip 1 is somewhat awkward, as a result of diving up the within leaves automobiles in poor form for the run in the direction of the Esses. As well as, the racing line runs diagonally throughout the start-finish straight, so there isn’t any clear 50/50 cut up in grip ranges between each side of the grid.

Final yr’s begin conflict between Verstappen and Piastri is a warning that Flip 1 could be the most important hazard for Norris to beat, whereas Piastri will likely be in two minds about making an attempt to swoop into the lead and never be overly aggressive in the direction of his team-mate – the oft-misunderstood papaya guidelines and all.

Technique video games

Let’s assume for a second that Flip 1 goes and not using a hitch – a giant assumption – and the highest three cross the end line on Lap 2 within the order they began. What are Yas Marina’s choices of offering a spectacle befitting of a title finale?

The circuit would not precisely have a wealthy historical past of overtaking. The ghosts of 2010 are nonetheless haunting Stella, when he was in Fernando Alonso’s nook whereas the Ferrari man was caught in visitors – Vitaly Petrov sends his regards – and Sebastian Vettel took his maiden world title with out ever having led the championship.

Going through the same scenario as Verstappen at the moment, Lewis Hamilton tried to again Nico Rosberg into the chasing pack in 2016, needing rivals to place far between the 2 for Hamilton to prevail. It did not occur.

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, Laurent Mekies, Red Bull Racing Team Principal

Max Verstappen, Pink Bull Racing, Laurent Mekies, Pink Bull Racing Crew Principal

Photograph by: Mark Thompson / Getty Photographs

Verstappen is anticipated to a minimum of think about doing the identical, as clearing off and giving Norris a simple path to second is not any good for the Dutchman, who may succeed Vettel as the subsequent driver to triumph with out main the championship earlier than the finale.

However because the Pink Bull man factors out, Yas Marina has since undergone format adjustments that make overtaking barely simpler.

“Let’s examine what we will do. After all, I will attempt to win the race, but in addition behind my thoughts, we wish to attempt to rating loads of factors to nonetheless attempt to win that championship. So, we’d like a little bit of luck from what is occurring behind us,” Verstappen stated.

“[But 2016] was additionally a unique format. I really feel like now you get towed round much more across the lap, so it’s in all probability not as straightforward to do one thing like that. Vehicles are also utterly totally different to again then. I hope it’s not easy, the race – however hopefully that’s not due to me!”

The annoying actuality is that, as is commonly the case, the grand prix will seemingly devolve into to a tyre administration race on Yas Marina’s low-grip circuit, with the necessity to maintain observe place making a one-stopper by far the only option.

Andrea Stella, McLaren

Photograph by: Altaf Qadri / POOL / AFP through Getty Photographs

And even when graining fears on Pirelli’s more durable race tyre compounds are seemingly overblown, Stella expects Verstappen could nicely need to modulate his tempo to maintain his tyre alive somewhat than something extra tactical. McLaren has saved two units of exhausting tyres for each of its drivers ought to it have to modify to a two-stop, whereas Verstappen has two mediums as an alternative.

“When it comes to how the race will unfold, there could also be causes to manage the tempo even from a tyre perspective, not essentially due to some strategic motive for the lead automotive. So undoubtedly, we’ll see some tempo management and it will likely be attention-grabbing to see whether or not the tyre degradation signifies that the race will likely be extra on a one- or a two-stop. I believe it is a little bit of an open query.”

If Verstappen does maintain the sector compact, that will nicely influence McLaren’s skill to undercut him by pitting earlier, as a bunched up discipline would make it extra seemingly for Norris to pit into visitors, the identical mistake Alonso made in 2010 to cowl Mark Webber.

A serving to hand

In 2021’s dramatic decider, Verstappen obtained a serving to hand from team-mate Sergio Perez to maintain Hamilton at bay. Can Verstappen’s present wingman Yuki Tsunoda, on his final hurrah earlier than transferring to the reserve bench, lastly do his bit after being too far adrift for many of the season? Tsunoda was blissful to sacrifice his first Q3 run to provide the Dutchman a tow, and stated he could be blissful to assist the place doable, for instance by extending his first stint.

“I will do as a lot as I can to assist him,” Tsunoda stated. “Most probably, it could in all probability compromise my technique, however along with his place, how he ended up, there’s nonetheless an opportunity to get a championship. So, I will do as a lot as I can. Let’s examine.”

Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing

Yuki Tsunoda, Pink Bull Racing

Photograph by: Guido De Bortoli / LAT Photographs through Getty Photographs

Verstappen can even want some assist from an unlikely ally, George Russell, who would wish to place himself between the main Pink Bull and Norris.

“Actually, I believe I am simply going to deal with it like another race,” Russell informed Sky. “If there’s a chance and if there is a hole, if this was race one of many season… I would not be aiming to do something reckless, however I am not going to go away alternatives on the desk.

“I additionally wish to end the season on the excessive and I’ve obtained to be sincere, I will not sleep higher or worse irrespective of who wins the championship tomorrow. So, I will be doing my very own factor and go from there.”

With the three title protagonists all qualifying within the prime three, the stage could not be set any higher for one more dramatic conclusion to 2025’s gruelling season. And whereas maybe Yas Marina simply is not the correct of circuit for an action-packed finale, the circuit’s final title battles present it has a knack for delivering drama, even whenever you least anticipate it.

A worthy winner?

Who would deserve it extra? There may be little doubt that Verstappen is the driving force of the season, with how he managed to remain within the title struggle within the intrinsically slower automotive, and helped Pink Bull get out of a set-up rut within the center a part of the season.

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In the meantime, Norris has proven nice private development to bounce again from a troublesome spell and develop into a worthy title contender, and Piastri has demonstrated he can go toe-to-toe along with his friends regardless of solely being in his third F1 season. It is a moot query, whoever wins the title on Sunday night time will not have stolen it.

Can Norris and McLaren keep cool one final time, can Piastri spring a shock, or will the inevitable Verstappen discover a technique to crown an imposing 2025 season along with his most interesting achievement but?

Pictures from Abu Dhabi GP – Apply & Qualifying

Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing