Right here’s what’s occurring in NASCAR with Kansas Speedway within the rearview and the 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway (Solar., 8 p.m. ET, FS1) up subsequent.
1. Information deep dive — hidden developments from the primary 12 races of 205
In NASCAR, the numbers go deeper than simply wins and laps led. NASCAR Insights has been protecting monitor of passer, protection, pace, restart and pit crew deep analytics this 12 months. The season averages are producing some fascinating insights.
So many issues have occurred since William Byron opened the season with a second straight Daytona 500 victory.
Christopher Bell gained three straight races. Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Denny Hamlin almost matched it shortly thereafter. Josh Berry gained a race earlier than any of his Staff Penske cohorts and has the No. 21 automotive trying like an element. Kyle Larson is simply on one other planet proper now, and appears like he’s about to enter an entire different universe, too.
It’s been an impactful open to 2025, with main narratives entrance and heart. However what does the story inside the story inform?
Let’s dig into the season-long superior statistical averages, courtesy of NASCAR Insights, to see if we are able to uncover any developments mendacity below the floor that would turn out to be obvious within the subsequent third of the season and past.
— Cup Collection champion Brad Keselowski, mired in one among his most irritating seasons thus far, is twentieth or worse in each statistical common to this point … besides he’s seventh in Protection Score, which “evaluates a driver’s potential to carry their place when below stress, assessing their effectiveness in keeping off sooner vehicles.” Regardless of his frustrations and lack of pace, Keselowski is ready to dangle in there with one of the best of them; we’ve seen him discover his strategy to the entrance this 12 months, even regardless of all that. It’s possible his group finds pace features sooner or later this season and that, mixed along with his cool-headedness, might maybe result in a win.
— Cole Custer’s No. 41 Haas Manufacturing facility Staff pit crew ranks thirteenth, whereas Custer is exterior the highest 30 in the whole lot else. That’s nonetheless a stable spine, and the group — which might be nonetheless adjusting from an enormous transition — ought to solely discover methods to go sooner from right here as Custer continues to reacclimate to the Cup Collection. Not saying a Custer playoff look is within the crystal ball, however I’d be shocked to see this group not discover some higher outcomes over the summer season and construct some momentum for 2026.
— Noah Gragson is eleventh in restarts and seventeenth in protection to rank within the prime half of the sphere there, and he’s doing it with the Twenty eighth-best pace and Twenty ninth-best passer ranking. It stands to cause that if the No. 4 Entrance Row Motorsports Ford features within the pace space, Gragson might be preventing for constant prime 15s on the very least and maybe a win, given his restart potential specifically.
— On the flip facet, Las Vegas winner Josh Berry is getting eaten up on restarts (twenty fifth) regardless of being within the prime 15 in passing, pace and protection. This isn’t essentially surprising from a sophomore within the Cup Collection, and, if it’s one thing he’s presumably capable of enhance upon, he might spherical right into a deep-in-the-playoffs type of driver.
— Ryan Blaney’s No. 12 Ford has been a bullet in 2025 — as evidenced by his first-place ranking in each passing and pace — however he ranks exterior the highest 10 in protection … which doesn’t appear preferrred when a driver has the clear quickest automotive. On a maybe associated be aware, Blaney is the one winless driver among the many 4 related to Staff Penske. (For now.)
— Spire Motorsports has taken an apparent leap ahead in 2025, seemingly within the combine with not less than one among its drivers on a weekly foundation. So, it’s fairly stunning that Carson Hocevar’s P14 ranking in passing is the very best that any Spire driver is ranked in any class. Both their early 2025 returns are a fluke or this trio is about to interrupt out in a giant manner, ought to any pace features be discovered.
— Ryan Preece has additionally taken a major leap this 12 months in his first season with RFK Racing, and he seems to be the actual deal. Preece and the No. 60 group have been on it at Kansas, however he’s additionally ranked fifth in passing for 12 months. For context — teammates Keselowski and Chris Buescher, each of whom anticipated to make the playoffs when vehicles rolled into Daytona, rank twenty fifth and twenty second, respectively.
MORE: NASCAR Insights: Ryan Preece continues very good season at Kansas
— Equally to Custer’s No. 41 group, JGR’s Ty Gibbs (2nd) and Trackhouse Racing’s Daniel Suárez (seventh) are bolstered by sturdy pit crews, however are struggling throughout the board in any other case, averaging 21.75 and 21.25 within the different classes, respectively. Gibbs remains to be a growing Cup driver and Trackhouse has undergone some inside transitions. It’s not out of the realm of risk that both picks issues up the remainder of the best way and strikes whereas the iron is scorching for a win after being put in a good place by their pit crews.
— And at last … why the heck hasn’t Chase Elliott gained since April 2024, when his teammates appear to have the ability to pour it on at will these days? Restarts, restarts, restarts. Elliott’s peripherals on all the opposite classes are largely in step with them, however his restart potential in 2025 so far (sixteenth) pales compared to William Byron (1st) and Kyle Larson (2nd). Elliott is a well-established NASCAR famous person — a Cup champion, in spite of everything — and has a median rating of 5.0 between passing, pace and protection. In some unspecified time in the future he’s going to simply flat-out dominate and win a race, restarts be damned.
2. Will an All-Star Race victory spark somebody’s championship run?
The winner of the All-Star Race went on to win the Cup Collection championship in three of the final 5 years and 13 instances whole. With a number of drivers in want of a spark, might Sunday be an *ahem* turning level in somebody’s season?
The All-Star Race, with no factors up for grabs and a $1 million test ready in Victory Lane for the winner, is meant to be a pressure-free money scramble, however is there maybe just a little extra driving on it?
The exhibition occasion has changed into a real displaying of power for the celebrities of the game, with every of the final 9 races gained by Cup Collection champions. The race and the Invoice France Cup really feel intimately tied collectively, with three of the previous 5 champions additionally having gained the race earlier within the season.
With solely seven drivers having gained to this point this 12 months and a number of other playoff-hopeful drivers staring down the notion of being in “must-win” territory (and a few already there), will we see a driver have fun in North Wilkesboro and maybe set their season on a brand new trajectory?
No person wants it greater than Keselowski, and an All-Star victory would cross off one among his few remaining bins in a Corridor-of-Fame-worthy profession. RFK‘s co-owner/driver has completed second 3 times within the race, tied with Sterling Marlin and Ken Schrader for many runner-up trophies with no win. We‘ve seen him run up entrance these days (earlier than issues appear to at all times crumble for one cause or one other), nevertheless it‘s fairly potential the 2012 champ places all of it collectively this weekend. And lest we overlook — Carl Edwards almost gained a title for Roush the 12 months of his solely All-Star win in 2011.
It‘s not simply Keselowski, although. There are many drivers nonetheless in search of a win that anticipated to have one by now, and an All-Star Race triumph might completely be a launching pad for whoever wins it. Sixteen instances within the historical past of the race it was the winner‘s first victory of the season, and solely 3 times did these winners not go on to win an precise factors race within the the rest of the 12 months.
On the alternative finish of the spectrum you might even discover it possible that Larson, in what’s setting as much as be a torrid month of Might, involves North Wilkesboro and stomps his strategy to a record-tying fourth win. His trajectory, in that case, isn‘t altered — it‘s solidified.
Larson has all however turned this race into a private facet hustle, with all three of his wins coming within the final six years, tying Dale Earnhardt and Darrell Waltrip and trailing solely Jimmie Johnson‘s 4.
That‘s a mixed 18 Cup Collection championships proper there, and if Larson provides one other All-Star win on Sunday?
A nineteenth feels inevitable.
3. Letarte on Larson: ‘Jogs my memory just a little of Jimmie in his prime’
NASCAR Contained in the Race discusses Kyle Larson’s current Cup Collection dominance and evaluate him to seven-time Cup champion Jimmie Johnson.
4. Logano an all-time A-Lister amongst All-Stars
The three-time and present defending champion Joey Logano by some means manages to raise his recreation even additional on the annual NASCAR All-Star Race and his consistency is unparalleled. (Credit score: Racing Insights)
DriverTop-10 streakAll-Star Race winsJoey Logano*102Matt Kenseth91Kyle Busch71Dale Earnhardt73* lively streak5. Catch the pack — information and notes from across the storage
Paint Scheme Preview: 2025 NASCAR All-Star Race
Month of Might: Kyle Larson‘s on-track schedule as he makes an attempt The Double
High 5 drivers revealed in 2025 All-Star Race Fan Vote
Straight Discuss straight stat: Kyle Larson‘s Kansas dominance
@nascarcasm: Faux texts to Kansas winner Kyle Larson
NASCAR‘s Moran dissects Cup follow tire failures: ‘Typically (groups) go just a little too far‘
Hamlin nets back-to-back DNFs for first time since 2013
Chase Briscoe‘s ‘bizarre‘ day lands him prime 5 for greatest profession Kansas end
Gradual cease slumps Chase Elliott‘s successful probabilities at Kansas; Hamlin additionally derailed
Three Up, Three Down: Drivers in focus leaving Kansas
Energy Rankings: Bell re-emerging as elite drive — is first All-Star Race win coming?
