Monitor: Darlington RacewayLocation: Darlington, South CarolinaTrack size: 1.366 milesWhen: 5 p.m. ETWhere to tune in: USA Community, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR RadioRace purse: $11,849,963Race distance: 367 laps | 501.32 milesStages: 115 | 230 | 367Sunday’s beginning lineup | Pit stall assignments
The trail for a new-look Chase — and a title in Homestead — begins now
The blueprint for profitable a 10-race Cup Collection championship is available.
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However hardly any of the 16 contenders within the 2026 Chase introduced by Mobil 1 for NASCAR’s premier title have been focused on finding out it.
An off-the-cuff survey at this week’s Media Day revealed a big lack of curiosity about how The Chase labored throughout its first run from 2004-13 earlier than being supplanted by the elimination playoffs.
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“I’ve not checked out it,” Austin Cindric admitted. “Be happy to teach me.”
Nicely, it was an period of 5 consecutive championships by Jimmie Johnson, a miracle cost by Tony Stewart in 2011 and an annual coronation at Homestead-Miami Speedway (which returns to the season finale slot this 12 months).
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It was additionally a time earlier than stage factors have been awarded. Earlier than wins carried a heftier margin over second place. Earlier than the Subsequent Gen radically altered how vehicles have been constructed and ready.
“It is simply so totally different now,” Chase Briscoe stated. “Possibly there’s one thing to study from the consistency standpoint, but it surely’s so totally different.”
Mentioned Cindric: “It is a utterly totally different world so far as how the game is run, how the groups are run and the way the vehicles are constructed. So I suppose these days are gone sufficient for me to not actually issue them into how we put together.”
Having made The Chase for eight seasons as a crew chief earlier than shifting into the position of TV analyst, Steve Letarte says there are few “apples to apples” comparisons to the unique Chase — besides one.
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“It’s nonetheless a 70-day stress cooker,” he stated. “It’s 10 weeks of the whole lot you might have. There are not any races off, no laps off, no days off. The champion goes to need to undergo the identical 70-day stress cooker.”
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Ryan Blaney is the one championship-eligible driver who stated he had reviewed The Chase seasons of 2004-13.
“What I respect with the blokes in these Chase years who may put collectively 10 actually good weeks was their demeanor,” he stated. “Their mindsets have been clearly extremely targeted and on the top aim. So I like trying on the guys who gained it in that format and simply seeing their dedication and their motivation. The mentality to simply dig in for 10 weeks. I believe you possibly can study from a few of that mentally versus on-track efficiency that is not as relatable as a result of it is all the time altering.”
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Amongst this 12 months’s subject, solely two contenders have expertise with the resurrected format. High seed Denny Hamlin made The Chase from 2006-12 (and entered the season finale with a shot to win in 2006 and ’10). Joey Logano made The Chase in 2013 and has an overriding reminiscence.
“It is 10 weeks of hell,” Logano stated. “I heard Jimmie Johnson say that one time and it is fairly true. It is a grueling 10 weeks, but it surely’s a reasonably cool trophy on the finish of it.”
With the 10-race title run set to unfold beginning with Sunday’s Cook dinner Out Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway (5 p.m. ET, USA Community, HBO Max, MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), listed below are some lingering questions (and previous developments) to ponder about how the 2026 Chase will unfold primarily based off the ten seasons in its unique iteration:
Does Chase data equal energy?
Although Logano and Hamlin are the one drivers with prior Chase expertise, there is a deep pool of government management that has a robust monitor document and a wealth of institutional data about easy methods to game-plan a 10-race championship.
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Crew Penske president Michael Nelson and competitors director Travis Geisler performed instrumental roles with the group throughout Brad Keselowski’s 2012 championship.
Chad Knaus, who gained six championships in 10 years of the unique Chase as Johnson’s crew chief, is Hendrick Motorsports’ vice chairman of competitors.
“After I look by means of the storage and see Chad, who dominated The Chase format, nonetheless being at Hendrick Motorsports,” Letarte stated. “Possibly there was one thing in his secret recipe that he may form of attempt to divvy out to his groups.”
Hendrick’s trio of Chase drivers stated they’ve seen no formal course from Knaus, however there is a sense that his expertise will likely be a serious asset.
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“There’s some background there for positive,” stated William Byron, who scored his first Cup win with Knaus as crew chief six years in the past. “I believe that is most likely unfold throughout the group extra so than in simply conversations. You hope that there is some vitality from that. Simply being Hendrick Motorsports usually, we have had historical past of with the ability to execute on the proper time.”
Is Hendrick mendacity in wait?
Certainly, the hallmark of Johnson’s title runs was his means to flip the swap for a late-season surge. Within the first two years of The Chase, the No. 48 Chevrolet established factors leads throughout the common season earlier than fading into the autumn. Crew proprietor Rick Hendrick has stated he inspired Johnson and Knaus to take a look at The Chase as a “parallel program” to roll out vehicles that delivered a stronger ending kick.
Throughout his run of 5 consecutive titles, Johnson by no means led the factors after 26 races however gained 13 of fifty Chase races.
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“They have been capable of harness this mentality of we’re one of the best group right here, and we’ll go present all people,” Blaney stated. “We’re not going to make errors. We will dominate just about all people. I simply suppose it was a end result of only a actually gifted crew and other people, and so they have been capable of do all of the issues proper. I guess Chad had some secret elements sitting on the shelf, however on the finish of the day, they nonetheless needed to carry out and execute, and so they have been capable of rise to the event.”
With solely two wins this season, Hendrick will want an identical efficiency to say a sixteenth Cup championship. Defending champion Kyle Larson, who’s mired in a 50-race winless streak, stated the crew has perception {that a} Johnson-type run may develop regardless of totally different circumstances.
“I believe you had extra instruments in your toolbox again then, too, the place I believe now all of the groups are handcuffed in a approach in comparison with that period of racing,” he stated. “However whenever you’re racing for Hendrick Motorsports, you realize at any level, we will flip it round. You simply by no means know when that day may come. It may come subsequent week. It may come tomorrow. You simply need to be prepared for it.”
Chase Elliott, who has each of Hendrick’s victories, stated that “nobody is aware of what our crew’s doing or what goes on behind the scenes. Clearly, the 12 months hasn’t gone like we would like it to go from an organization standpoint, however nobody’s discouraged by that. From a mentality standpoint, from a prep standpoint, simply all of the little issues which might be in our management, we’ll guarantee that we’re placing our greatest foot ahead. We simply actually haven’t got loads to lose proper now with the best way we have been operating over the previous few months.”
Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and William Byron
Will Darlington set a tone?
When Chicagoland Speedway began The Chase from 2011-13, it was the primary of 5 1.5-mile tracks. The highest of the pace chart for the opening apply session invariably was full of contenders closely targeted on the dominant monitor within the title run.
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This 12 months’s Southern 500 opener at Darlington Raceway is likely to be extra of an outlier than New Hampshire Motor Speedway’s 1-mile oval was from 2004-10. The subsequent two races of the 2026 Chase at World Broad Expertise Raceway and Bristol Motor Speedway additionally may have much less bearing as title barometers
However the ensuing three-race stretch at Kansas Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway will likely be a essential take a look at of three 1.5-mile tracks that may also supply a preview of the championship finale at Homestead.
“I do not suppose you possibly can take a complete lot from Darlington,” Briscoe stated of a 1.366-mile monitor that may function a decrease downforce, increased horsepower package deal. “The factors are clearly going to hold over, but when any individual has a nasty run at Darlington, clearly it units them again points-wise, however I do not suppose that is going to dictate how they run the remainder of The Chase. I do not suppose there’s a complete lot you possibly can take away from actually the primary three weeks. After that, I believe you are going to actually have an thought of who’s going to be there.”
A mulligan or extra?
Not like the specter of first-round elimination within the playoffs, Chase champions have gotten away with weak begins.
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The very best instance was the primary title for Johnson, who completed thirty ninth at New Hampshire and did not earn his first high 10 till the fifth race of the 2006 Chase. He gained the title with a mean end of 10.8 — the one Chase champion with a mean worse than 9.0.
The standard knowledge was that you would have one poor end in The Chase, but it surely additionally is determined by how the competitors fares. Blaney believes this 12 months’s champ might want to common a end between sixth and seventh (the ten Chase champions from 2004-13 had a cumulative common end slightly below 7.0).
“I believe it’s actually essential to get off to begin, when you can, however for positive, it isn’t the top of the world when you do not,” Elliott stated. “However the extra unhealthy weeks you might have, you are going to need to be fairly darn good to make up for it. You probably have a slip-up (at Darlington), you higher have the flexibility to win and do it usually to climb out of a nasty race or two.”
Three champions opened the unique Chase with a victory — Kurt Busch (who gained the inaugural Chase race at New Hampshire in 2004), Tony Stewart (2011) and Brad Keselowski (2012).
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Talladega terror?
Christopher Bell is conscious that the primary seven races will probably decide if he races for the title.
“I have been form of making a small joke that if I’m going to be the champion, then I higher have a factors hole on the sphere going into Talladega,” Bell stated. “The primary seven are all actually good tracks for me. So, I believe my greatest hope is that I’ve a factors hole going into the ultimate three.”
Talladega was probably the most feared monitor within the unique Chase, and it by no means fell so late within the schedule — the eighth of the ultimate 10 races in 2026. From 2004-13, it fell between the third and sixth races eight occasions and was the seventh race twice.
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With solely Martinsville and Homestead remaining after 500 miles on the two.66-mile oval this season, it looms as probably the most decisive monitor in The Chase for each destroying or salvaging title bids.
“I have a look at Talladega as a momentum ender, but additionally as a terrific alternative to capitalize on others’ errors and pitfalls,” stated Bubba Wallace, who earned his first Cup victory there in 2021.
Briscoe stated Talladega would be the race “the place the whole lot’s going to alter. There’s simply so many factors that may be misplaced there. You actually haven’t got a mulligan in The Chase, but when you are going to use one, it will need to be at Talladega, and that is simply the place it makes it the opposite 9 weeks so laborious as a result of you probably have a nasty race at a kind of different 9, you must go to Talladega and have stable day, and that is the place the factors are actually going to get flipped the other way up.”
NASCAR Cup Collection crash at Talladega
High Six or bust?
In accordance with Racing Insights, The Chase champion was projected to return from the highest six in regular-season factors in 85 p.c of 25,000 laptop simulations. The modeling is predicated on historic performances (which principally would have come beneath the earlier playoff system of 2014-25).
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Can a driver exterior the highest six pull an upset? There’s some hope to be present in two examples of huge factors swings this season. Tyler Reddick misplaced a 129-point lead in six races, and Ryan Preece made up a 50-point deficit in two races to make The Chase.
Bell, who enters The Chase in sixth place, declared on Media Day that the champion will come from the highest six, however opinions have been cut up elsewhere.
“Something is feasible, however whenever you have a look at who has had the pace, a whole lot of the vehicles and groups which have had the pace on the tracks that make up the vast majority of The Chase are form of in that high six,” Reddick stated. “It does get more durable the additional again you’re. You might be beginning in a gap.”
Cindric, who will begin in fifteenth, stated so long as it is mathematically doable for any of the opposite 16 drivers to win the championship, “that is all I must know. You are telling me there’s an opportunity. That is actually all you possibly can have a look at.”
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Preece, ranked final however brimming with confidence after his victory at Daytona clinched a Chase spot, is not a believer within the top-six idea.
“By no means as a result of I believe these guys are going to race the hell out of one another and if they’ve a few unhealthy races, there is not any win and also you’re into the subsequent spherical,” Preece stated. “It will be powerful to make up these factors.
“Simply since you’re sixteenth in factors does not imply you did not execute a terrific season. We did not luck into that win (at Daytona). We ran up entrance. We executed. We did the whole lot we would have liked to do as a Cup-winning caliber crew. If we present that for the subsequent 10 weeks, we will do it. It is not simple, however we will do it.”
Pace reads
Race-day necessities:
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• Darlington hub: Key data, pit stalls, further outcomes | Learn extra• Sunday Setup: Crew chiefs get set for “Too Powerful to Tame” take a look at | Learn extra• Paint Scheme Preview: This week’s Chase-opening designs for Darlington | View gallery• Neil Paine: Can Denny Hamlin be a drive in new Chase format? | Learn extra• NASCAR Classics: Browse the video archives for full-race replays from Darlington | Watch now• Energy Rankings: Hamlin heads the highest 16 as postseason begins | This week’s ranks
