Denny Hamlin may hardly have requested for a greater method to enter NASCAR’s new Chase.
Hamlin enters the 2026 Chase because the No.1 seed after one of many strongest common seasons of his profession. He completed with 4 wins, 14 top-five finishes and 17 top-10s, whereas remaining the one Chase driver and not using a DNF via the primary 26 races.
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His seventh-place end at New Hampshire formally locked up the highest seed.
That offers Hamlin 2,100 factors heading into the Chase, 25 forward of Ryan Blaney at 2,075. NASCAR’s new format rewards the regular-season champion, however that benefit is smaller than it sounds.
A single win is value 55 factors.
So Hamlin’s 25-point cushion can disappear in a short time.
That’s the reason the talk round Hamlin is not actually about whether or not he has been the very best driver this yr, he clearly has, however the actual query is whether or not the No.11 group can survive ten races with out giving the competitors a gap.
NASCAR Consultants See Virtually No Weak point in Hamlin
Aug 15, 2026; Richmond, Virginia, USA; Joe Gibbs Racing driver Denny Hamlin (11) throughout driver introductions earlier than the Cook dinner Out 400 at Richmond Raceway. Necessary Credit score: Greg Atkins-Imagn Pictures
Jordan Bianchi and Jeff Gluck mentioned Hamlin’s championship possibilities on The Teardown podcast, and for them, discovering a real weak point within the No.11 group is not simple.
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Bianchi dismissed the concept dangerous luck ought to even rely as a weak point.
“However that is not even, like, a weak point. That is not something of their realm of management in any respect. Like, yeah, Hamlin’s luck sucks. And we get that,” Bianchi stated.
Then got here the larger praise.
“Denny’s arguably the hardest-working driver within the sport,” Bianchi stated. “He research probably the most. The group is on their sport. The Toyota has the very best vehicles this yr. Joe Gibbs Racing is the very best group. They test all of the containers.”
Hamlin has been one of the vital constant drivers within the discipline, and he additionally put collectively a stretch of three consecutive wins at Nashville, Michigan and Pocono earlier within the season.
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NASCAR itself famous that Hamlin’s New Hampshire end result was his sixth end of seventh or higher in seven races.
That’s troublesome to beat over an extended championship run.
There’s one other enormous benefit for Hamlin. He has already gained at each monitor on the 2026 Chase schedule.
Kansas: Extra Cup wins there than some other driver.
These numbers actually do not assure one other trophy, however they make the schedule look far much less intimidating for Hamlin than it does for a few of his rivals.
And the ultimate race might be notably vital.
Can Denny Hamlin Lastly Win the Cup Collection Title?
The 2026 championship will likely be determined at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the place Hamlin has gained 3 times. In contrast to the earlier elimination system, each Chase driver stays alive all through the 10-race postseason, with the championship going to whoever finishes with probably the most factors.
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That fully modifications the technique.
There is no such thing as a have to survive three rounds after which win a winner-take-all finale. Consistency issues throughout the whole Chase. That ought to go well with Hamlin.
But it surely additionally means his 25-point benefit is just not practically sufficient to loosen up.
NASCAR’s new system provides all 16 Chase drivers a contemporary factors whole primarily based on their regular-season end. Hamlin begins at 2,100, whereas the sixteenth seed begins at 2,000. There aren’t any eliminations after that.
Hamlin has 64 profession Cup victories and not using a championship, and has completed second twice, together with final season. For years, Hamlin has been the motive force who will get shut sufficient to make folks imagine, just for one thing to go mistaken when the championship is lastly inside attain.
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Now he has maybe the very best mixture he has ever had: a quick Toyota, a robust JGR group, super consistency and a Chase schedule full of tracks the place he has already gained.
Bianchi summed up the chance. “I really feel clearly that is Denny Hamlin’s yr. I really feel like that is his championship to lose”
And if the JGR driver doesn’t win this yr, the criticism will likely be apparent.
Hamlin had the №1 seed. He had the quickest vehicles and 4 wins. He had expertise at each monitor and the factors benefit. And he had a championship format that rewarded consistency somewhat than forcing every part into one last race.
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However NASCAR solely wants one dangerous pit cease, one mechanical drawback or one mistake on the mistaken time to show a championship favourite into one other what if?
Is Hamlin lastly about to get the championship everybody says he ought to win, or are we heading towards one other heartbreak?
Additionally Learn:NASCAR Legend Weighs In as Followers Break up Over Sport’s Future
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