The 2026 NASCAR season begins on Sunday, February 15, with the Daytona 500. The crown jewel race will begin one other thrilling common season, which ought to be even higher this yr with the return of the Chase format. Earlier than the common season begins, we’re projecting the 16 drivers we consider will make the NASCAR playoffs.
Let’s dive into our NASCAR predictions for which 16 Cup Collection drivers will make the Chase.
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1. Kyle Larson
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The reigning NASCAR Cup Collection champion, Kyle Larson, enters 2026 with an excellent alternative to earn his third title. Hendrick Motorsports advantages vastly from the brand new 10-race championship format, and Larson might be well-positioned for the extra factors that come from successful the regular-season title.
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2. William Byron
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William Byron led the Cup Collection in laps led () final season, which is a fair higher reflection of his regular-season dominance than his win complete (three). The No. 24 group shouldn’t need to be fairly as aggressive when going for wins this season, which ought to result in a slight enchancment in his common ending place (14.5) and top-five finishes (11). Byron looks like a lock to complete within the prime three in factors through the common season; even ending within the prime two looks like a secure guess given his monitor report.
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3. Ryan Blaney
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Ryan Blaney received 4 races in 2025 and tied Kyle Larson and Chase Briscoe for essentially the most top-five finishes (15). He additionally suffered from a few of the worst luck amongst Cup Collection drivers, as evidenced by his through the marketing campaign. The variety of DNFs is an outlier for the prime of Blaney’s profession, and regression to the norm ought to end in his common ending place from 2025 (14.6) returning nearer to 12.0 this yr. He won’t win the regular-season crown, however we might be trying on the Cup Collection champion in 2026 below the brand new Chase playoff format.
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4. Chase Briscoe
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Becoming a member of Joe Gibbs Racing in 2025, Chase Briscoe made essentially the most of his alternatives with career-best marks throughout the board. He was significantly robust down the stretch, main NASCAR in laps led (692) over the whereas recording the second-most top-five finishes (seven) and the third-highest common ending place (10.7) throughout that span. Now in his second season with JGR, there’s a bit much less inner stress on Briscoe to carry out and his success ought to carryover into being one of many 5 greatest NASCAR drives this yr.
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5. Tyler Reddick
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Tyler Reddick had a down season in 2025, failing to report a win and recording his fewest top-five finishes (seven), top-10 finishes (14), and laps led (169) for the reason that 2021 marketing campaign. It actually looks like quite a lot of that may be attributed to the uncertainty over constitution standing, his future with 23XI Racing, and his son’s medical points. Along with his long-term future with 23XI secured and his son’s well being bettering, Reddick ought to have extra confidence and readability behind the wheel in 2026. We predict he might come near replicating his success from the , when he received three races and had double-digit top-five finishes.
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6. Christopher Bell
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It was a little bit of an odd 2025 marketing campaign for Christopher Bell. He began the season with three consecutive wins after which had only one in his closing 32 races, rating twelfth in laps led (282) and putting behind Austin Cindric (325) and Ty Gibbs (304). Our perception is that he’s nearer to the driving force we noticed within the first quarter of that season than the one we noticed through the summer time. Bell ought to ship one other three-win season and have an out of doors shot at ending within the prime 5 in factors on the finish of the common season.
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7. Chase Elliott
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“Mr. Consistency” is without doubt one of the greatest winners from the brand new championship format, however he won’t see the rewards of it through the common season. In spite of everything, Chase Elliott has received simply three races during the last three seasons, so the bonus factors for reaching victory lane won’t be there for him. Or, no less than, not sufficient to snag the regular-season title. With that mentioned, a driver who has recorded 19 top-10 finishes in every of the final two campaigns is a lock to make the NASCAR playoffs and achieve this comfortably.
8. Denny Hamlin
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Placing Denny Hamlin this low is perhaps on the bolder aspect of our NASCAR predictions for 2026. It’s not a query of expertise, because the 45-year-old positioned himself to win his first Cup Collection championship in 2025 earlier than destiny intervened on the ultimate laps at Phoenix. Nonetheless, Hamlin might be driving via an aggravated torn labrum this season and coping with the feelings of racing for the primary time since his father’s passing. If anybody can channel these challenges into success, it will be Hamlin, however we expect the shoulder damage and the ensuing impression on his follow time will trigger his numbers to drop throughout the board this season.
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9. Joey Logano
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It’s an even-numbered yr, however the brand new NASCAR playoff format will probably make it tougher for Joey Logano to win a championship in 2026. He’s nonetheless a lock to make the 16-driver postseason. Logano closed out 2025 with a robust playoff run, recording a 33 p.c top-five end fee and eight top-10 finishes over the ultimate 10 races. He’s all the time good for a win or two every season, and the No. 22 Ford has a superb likelihood of ending tenth or higher in factors when the Chase begins.
10. Ross Chastain
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We count on Trackhouse Racing to be even stronger this season, with Ross Chastain main the way in which. The group introduced in Hendrick Motorsports engineer Brandon McSwain to function Chastain’s crew chief in 2026. We’re projecting enchancment in Chastain’s common ending place (15.8) and top-five finishes (4) from final season, alongside along with his most laps led since 2023.
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11. Bubba Wallace
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Even amid the uncertainty of the lawsuit and 23XI Racing probably shedding its charters for a portion of the season, Bubba Wallace confirmed actual enchancment in the summertime. Past his Brickyard 400 win, the No. 23 had the fifth-most laps led (272), tied for the seventh-most top-10 finishes (seven), and sat ninth in common beginning place (12.3) over the ultimate 15 races. Now coming into his second season with crew chief Charles Denike and backed by among the finest pit crews in NASCAR, Wallace has an opportunity to complete within the prime 10 in factors this season.
12. Alex Bowman
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Alex Bowman is in a novel spot coming into the 2026 NASCAR season. On one hand, the brand new Chase playoff format nearly ensures that the fourth-best driver for Hendrick Motorsports will make the 16-car area. Nonetheless, the driving force of the No. 48 can also be in a contract yr, and there aren’t any ensures he’ll obtain an extension anytime quickly. The crew and tools ought to assist Bowman end properly inside the playoff area, however we don’t suspect he’ll ever be thought of a championship contender.
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13. Ryan Preece
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Profitable the Conflict at Bowman Grey Stadium doesn’t give Ryan Preece any factors that may carry over into the common season. Nonetheless, Preece and the No. 60 group will carry that confidence with them into the Daytona 500. Preece confirmed actual expertise late final season, recording a median ending place of 15.7 and 14 top-10 finishes for the yr. We’re projecting a career-best season from Preece in 2026, giving RFK Racing a robust likelihood of putting no less than one driver within the NASCAR playoffs.
14. Chris Buescher
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Now we have a pair of drivers from RFK Racing making it into the playoffs, simply not co-owner Brad Keselowski. Coming off an excellent 2023 marketing campaign—three wins, 9 top-five finishes, and 255 laps led—Chris Buescher has totaled only one win with 11 top-five finishes and 255 laps led during the last two seasons mixed. He’s ok to sneak into the playoffs, however nothing we have now seen within the final two years suggests Buescher can return to his earlier heights.
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15. Shane van Gisbergen
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Even when Shane van Gisbergen doesn’t replicate his road-course dominance from 2025—when he earned 5 wins—that’s not what actually issues in 2026. SVG confirmed exceptional enchancment on ovals within the second half of the season, snagging his first profession top-10 end at Kansas. He additionally had some spectacular moments at Bowman Grey earlier this week. Whereas we expect SVG will solely win two road-course races this season, the general enhancements on ovals paired with these wins ought to be sufficient to get him into the NASCAR playoffs.
16. Carson Hocevar
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Not solely do we expect Carson Hocevar data his first Cup Collection win in 2026, however we’re additionally projecting him to make the playoffs. He’s nonetheless a bit on the overaggressive aspect, however he now pairs that model with extra expertise, and there’s no questioning the velocity he brings to the desk within the No. 77. Hocevar will snag the final spot within the Chase, positioning himself as a harmful wild-card risk when the postseason begins.
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